Macroeconomics of Labor Market Sorting

假设有一天，美国所有的工人都被随机分配到所有现有的工作岗位上。对产量会有影响吗？答案似乎是“是的”。这表明，总产出和生产率取决于单个工人对特定工作的实际分配。该项目扩展了最先进的工人分类理论，将工人在就业时寻找更好工作的能力包括在内。然后，它表明，只使用常规可用的匹配的雇主-雇员数据的工资和劳动力市场的过渡率，它是可能的恢复任何观察到的雇主-雇员匹配的输出和输出的后果，生产率，和工资的任何工人移动到任何公司的经济。拟议的模型和计量方法将被用来提供大量的经典，但尚未回答的经济问题的实证答案。该项目的智力价值在于以下方面。(1)PI建立了一个具有在职搜索的假设匹配模型，并证明了它的非参数辨识。(2)PI利用计算机科学的最新进展来开发算法，以在实践中实施所提出的识别策略，因为现有数据集存在潜在的局限性。(3)PI将提供在均衡模型的背景下回答重要的实证问题的理论方法。(4)PI将为这些问题提供实质性的答案。该项目将产生广泛的影响。(1)这将为研究劳动力市场的排序提供一个新的模型和实证方法。 (2)它将开发并公开提供使这项研究得以进行的计算工具。(3)利用这些工具获得的新的实证研究结果将使人们更好地了解基本经济问题，并有可能对现有公共政策的设计和评价产生重大影响。从根本上说，PI显示了美国政府如何利用其已经获得的数据来克服劳动力市场的摩擦，并改善工人的工作分配。这可能最终导致美国经济竞争力的大幅提升。研究结果还将为失业保险等政策的最佳设计提供信息。(4)它将为研究生和研究生提供开发和应用这些工具和方法的培训。(5)这项研究的结果将在著名的国家和国际学术和政策会议和研讨会上提出。它们也可能成为高级课程阅读清单上的标准条目。

Suppose one day all workers in the U.S. were randomly reallocated across all existing jobs. Would there be any effect on output? It seems likely that the answer is ``yes''. This suggests that aggregate output and productivity depend on the actual allocation of individual workers to particular jobs. This project extends the state-of-the-art theory of sorting of workers across jobs to include the ability of workers to search for better jobs while employed. It then shows that, using only routinely available matched employer-employee data on wages and labor market transition rates, it is possible to recover the output of any observed employer-employee match and the consequences for output, productivity, and wages of moving any worker to any firm in the economy. The proposed model and measurement method will be used to provide substantive empirical answers to a number of classic but yet unanswered economic questions. The intellectual merit of the project lies in the following. (1) The PI develops an assortative matching model with on-the-job search and proves its nonparametric identification. (2) The PI draws on the recent advances in computer science to develop algorithms to implement the proposed identification strategy in practice given the potential limitations of existent data sets. (3) The PI will provide the theoretical methodology for answering important empirical questions in the context of an equilibrium model. (4) The PI will provide substantive answers to these questions. The project will have a broad impact. (1) It will provide a new model and empirical methodology for studying sorting in the labor market. (2) It will develop and and make publicly available the computational tools that enable this study. (3) New empirical findings obtained using these tools will provide a better understanding of fundamental economic issues and have a potential to substantially impact the design and evaluation of existing public policies. Fundamentally, the PI shows how the US government, using the data it already has access to, can to overcome frictions in the labor market and improve allocation of workers to jobs. This may eventually result in a substantial improvement in economic competitiveness of the United States. The results will also inform optimal design of policies, such as unemployment insurance. (4) It will provide training to graduate and postgraduate students in the development and applications of these tools and methods. (5) The results of this research will be presented at prominent national and international academic and policy conferences and seminars. They are also likely to become a standard entry on the reading lists in advanced courses.