Ideology and International Terrorism: Types of Terrorism and Their Structural Determinants

SES 0617980PI：爱德华·克伦肖俄亥俄州立大学意识形态与国际恐怖主义：恐怖主义类型及其结构性决定因素摘要意识形态驱动的国际恐怖主义类型有何不同？ 不同的恐怖主义意识形态形式是否源于不同的社会原因？ 方法和目标也有不同吗？ 本研究将政治暴力的主要理论应用于国际恐怖主义的大型现有数据集，将从以下方面探讨左翼、伊斯兰、右翼和民族主义恐怖主义：1）过去30年中它们的相对流行程度，2）它们在社会因果关系方面的差异，深入调查袭击次数、杀伤力、袭击地点和具体目标的差异。 使用 ITERATE 数据集以及出于比较目的的 RAND 数据集，我们通过进行三项主要分析来解决这些问题：（1）全球时间序列分析，我们调查世界状况（例如经济周期）对国际恐怖主义总体和意识形态类型的影响； (2) 横截面汇总时间序列分析，我们调查不同形式的恐怖袭击的国家产生情况、其致命性、区域目标以及这些袭击的国家地点； (3)（使用兰德公司数据进行比较）考虑到国家新闻自由水平、国际媒体机构的存在和经济发展，对新闻报道中的偏见进行评估。 从社会科学的角度来看，其主要目标是评估主要理论观点（例如社会解体、文明冲突）在研究国际恐怖主义中的有用性，最终目标是产生更全面的政治暴力理论。 在更广泛的层面上，该研究项目应以多种方式为公共政策提供信息。 最重要的是，我们预测国际恐怖主义一般模式的能力的任何提高都有助于威慑和准备。 此外，更详细地了解塑造非常规政治暴力的社会力量将提高公共和私人干预措施的针对性和有效性。

SES 0617980PI: Edward M. CrenshawOhio State UniversityIdeology and International Terrorism: Types of Terrorism and Their Structural DeterminantsABSTRACTHow different are ideologically-driven types of international terrorism? Do different ideological forms of terrorism arise from different social causes? Do methods and targets differ as well? Applying major theories of political violence to large, preexisting datasets on international terrorism, this research will explore Leftist, Islamic, Rightist and Ethnonationalist terrorism in terms of: 1) their relative prevalence over the last 30 years, and 2) their differences in terms of social causation, with in-depth investigation of differences in the number of attacks, lethality, attack location, and specific targets. Using the ITERATE dataset and, for comparative purposes, the RAND dataset, we address these questions by conducting three major analyses: (1) global time-series analyses where we investigate the influence of world conditions (e.g., economic cycles) on total and ideological types of international terrorism; (2) cross-sectional pooled time-series analyses where we investigate the national production of different forms of terrorist attacks, their lethality, their regional targets, and the national locations of these attacks; and (3) (using RAND data for comparative purposes) an assessment of bias in news reporting given national levels of press freedom, the presence of international media bureaus, and economic development. The main goal from a social scientific point of view is to evaluate the usefulness of major theoretical perspectives (e.g., social disorganization, the clash of civilizations) in studying international terrorism, with the ultimate aim of producing a more comprehensive theory of political violence. At a broader level, this research project should inform public policies in a number of ways. Foremost, any increase in our ability to predict general patterns of international terrorism aids in deterrence and preparedness. Further, a more detailed understanding of the social forces that shape unconventional political violence will improve the targeting and efficacy of both public and private interventions.