The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and Democratization

城市中心在动员和民主化中的作用

• 批准号: 1125307
• 负责人: Edward Crenshaw
• 金额: $ 6.42万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-15 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1125307&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Role; Urban; Centers; Mobilization; Democratization

The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and DemocratizationSES - 1125307Edward CrenshawOhio State UniversityDescriptionPast research suggests that many autocratic regimes concentrate their countries' populations and economic activities in single, very large cities (usually national capitals). This pattern is known as "urban primacy" in the scientific literature. In the short term, this allows highly centralized, autocratic regimes to maximize economic efficiency and easily monitor and control the rise of political opposition. This project instead examines the long-term, unintended consequences this urban primacy strategy has for autocratic regimes. Over time, primate cities can concentrate grievances because rapid rural-to-urban migration causes increasing inequalities. Moreover, these densely populated urban centers increasingly offer a unique blend of resources that encourage political mobilization (e.g., local and international media, non-governmental and civic organizations). Thus, the PIs hypothesize that primate cities may indeed become an Achilles heel for authoritarian regimes, serving as key sites of political contention. In short, the project examines whether -- contrary to common perceptions -- urban primacy plays a crucial role in explaining under which conditions authoritarianism has yielded to democracy over time at a global scale.The project employs pooled times-series and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between authoritarianism and urban primacy, different forms of violent and non-violent contention (e.g., riots, protests, terrorism), and democratization during the period 1960-2010.Broader ImpactThis project seeks to inform our understanding of democratic and authoritarian regimes, social movements, and urban development. Moreover, democratization has long played a central role in U.S. foreign policy. Findings may inform the policy community regarding the conditions under which to expect (1) contention to lead to democratic reform; 2) certain types of cities to become key to regime opposition; and 3) that the complex relationship between e.g., repression, urban primacy and political contention creates political consequences. In light of recent political turmoil in the Middle East and elsewhere, a better understanding of how these forces shape political development may be valuable to a broad set of stakeholders.

城市中心在动员和民主化中的作用SES - 1125307爱德华·克伦肖俄亥俄州立大学描述过去的研究表明，许多独裁政权将其国家的人口和经济活动集中在单个非常大的城市（通常是国家首都）。 这种模式在科学文献中被称为“城市优先”。 在短期内，这使得高度集权的专制政权能够最大限度地提高经济效率，并轻松监控和控制政治反对派的崛起。相反，该项目研究了这种城市优先战略对独裁政权造成的长期的、意想不到的后果。随着时间的推移，主要城市可能会集中不满，因为农村向城市的快速迁移会导致不平等加剧。此外，这些人口稠密的城市中心越来越多地提供鼓励政治动员的独特资源组合（例如当地和国际媒体、非政府组织和民间组织）。 因此，PI 假设，首要城市可能确实成为独裁政权的致命弱点，成为政治争论的关键场所。 简而言之，该项目研究了与普遍看法相反，城市首要地位是否在解释全球范围内威权主义在何种条件下逐渐屈服于民主方面发挥着至关重要的作用。该项目采用汇总时间序列和零膨胀负二项式回归来调查威权主义与城市首要地位、不同形式的暴力和非暴力争夺（例如骚乱、抗议、恐怖主义）、 1960-2010 年期间的民主化和民主化。更广泛的影响该项目旨在加深我们对民主和独裁政权、社会运动和城市发展的理解。 此外，民主化长期以来在美国外交政策中发挥着核心作用。 研究结果可以让政策界了解在什么条件下可以预期 (1) 争论会导致民主改革； 2）某些类型的城市成为反对政权的关键； 3）镇压、城市首要地位和政治争论之间的复杂关系产生了政治后果。 鉴于最近中东和其他地区的政治动荡，更好地了解这些力量如何塑造政治发展可能对广大利益相关者有价值。