The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and Democratization

城市中心在动员和民主化中的作用过去的研究表明，许多专制政权将其国家的人口和经济活动集中在一个非常大的城市（通常是国家首都）。这种模式在科学文献中被称为“城市优先”。在短期内，这使得高度集中的专制政权能够最大限度地提高经济效率，并容易地监视和控制政治反对派的崛起。相反，该项目考察了这种城市优先战略对专制政权的长期、意想不到的后果。随着时间的推移，灵长类城市可能会集中不满情绪，因为农村向城市的快速迁移导致不平等加剧。此外，这些人口密集的城市中心日益提供独特的资源组合，鼓励政治动员（例如，地方和国际媒体、非政府组织和民间组织）。因此，pi假设灵长类城市确实可能成为专制政权的阿喀琉斯之踵，成为政治争论的关键场所。简而言之，该项目考察了在全球范围内威权主义在何种条件下向民主屈服的过程中，城市优先地位是否发挥了关键作用，这与人们的普遍看法相反。该项目采用集合时间序列和零膨胀负二项回归来研究1960年至2010年期间威权主义与城市首要性、不同形式的暴力和非暴力争论（如骚乱、抗议、恐怖主义）和民主化之间的关系。更广泛的影响本项目旨在告知我们对民主和专制政权、社会运动和城市发展的理解。此外，民主化长期以来一直在美国外交政策中发挥着核心作用。调查结果可能会告知政策界在哪些条件下可以预期：(1)争论会导致民主改革；2)某些类型的城市成为反对政权的关键；3)压迫、城市主导和政治争论之间的复杂关系产生了政治后果。鉴于最近中东和其他地区的政治动荡，更好地了解这些力量如何影响政治发展可能对广泛的利益相关者有价值。

The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and DemocratizationSES - 1125307Edward CrenshawOhio State UniversityDescriptionPast research suggests that many autocratic regimes concentrate their countries' populations and economic activities in single, very large cities (usually national capitals). This pattern is known as "urban primacy" in the scientific literature. In the short term, this allows highly centralized, autocratic regimes to maximize economic efficiency and easily monitor and control the rise of political opposition. This project instead examines the long-term, unintended consequences this urban primacy strategy has for autocratic regimes. Over time, primate cities can concentrate grievances because rapid rural-to-urban migration causes increasing inequalities. Moreover, these densely populated urban centers increasingly offer a unique blend of resources that encourage political mobilization (e.g., local and international media, non-governmental and civic organizations). Thus, the PIs hypothesize that primate cities may indeed become an Achilles heel for authoritarian regimes, serving as key sites of political contention. In short, the project examines whether -- contrary to common perceptions -- urban primacy plays a crucial role in explaining under which conditions authoritarianism has yielded to democracy over time at a global scale.The project employs pooled times-series and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between authoritarianism and urban primacy, different forms of violent and non-violent contention (e.g., riots, protests, terrorism), and democratization during the period 1960-2010.Broader ImpactThis project seeks to inform our understanding of democratic and authoritarian regimes, social movements, and urban development. Moreover, democratization has long played a central role in U.S. foreign policy. Findings may inform the policy community regarding the conditions under which to expect (1) contention to lead to democratic reform; 2) certain types of cities to become key to regime opposition; and 3) that the complex relationship between e.g., repression, urban primacy and political contention creates political consequences. In light of recent political turmoil in the Middle East and elsewhere, a better understanding of how these forces shape political development may be valuable to a broad set of stakeholders.