AOC: A Multidisciplinary Protocol for Assessing Climate Impacts , Vulnerability and Adaptation

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Climate change is one of many potential influences on economic activities. The impact of climate change may either be enhanced or mitigated by existing conditions of an economic system such as international trade, production areas and markets, and by evolving adjustment decisions within an industry. As a result, assessing the potential impacts of climate change and their relative importance compared to other agents of change such as political risk is difficult, especially for economic activities with multiple, world-wide linkages. This exploratory project will use a modest-sized, yet international, industry as a prototype to develop approaches for improving the assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The tart-cherry industry was chosen as the prototype industry because ninety percent of world production is concentrated in only nine countries in North America and Central Europe. Furthermore, this industry is highly sensitive to climate extremes, and, like many others, has a long planning horizon and requires long-term investments before returns are realized. Potential contributions of this research include a better understanding of local and global vulnerabilities of an industry, the impact of emerging and declining production regions on regional economic development, international product and market differentiation as possible adaptation strategies, and the role of credit and insurance in managing risk. An important goal is to develop improved methods for assessing climate impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. The eventual products of the research also will have significance for any commodity market that is vulnerable to climate variations and change and will allow stakeholders and decision makers to better anticipate the complex consequences of change.This project will be undertaken by a multidisciplinary team of researchers composed of United States and international scientists with specialties in the areas of agricultural economics, climatology, computer science, economics, geography, and horticulture. Essential to meeting the goals of the project are two team meetings, one near the beginning of the planning period where the project team will refine objectives and set individual and group tasks for the following year and a second workshop toward the end of the planning period where the conceptual framework and methods will be refined. The ultimate goal is to understand the relative importance of climate as one agent of change among others including political and economic risk.