AOC: A Multidisciplinary Protocol for Assessing Climate Impacts , Vulnerability and Adaptation

气候变化是对经济活动的许多潜在影响之一。 国际贸易、生产地区和市场等经济体系的现有条件，以及产业内部不断演变的调整决定，可能会加强或减轻气候变化的影响。 因此，很难评估气候变化的潜在影响及其与政治风险等其他变化因素相比的相对重要性，特别是对于具有多重世界性联系的经济活动而言。 这一探索性项目将以一个规模不大但具有国际性的行业为原型，制定改进气候影响、脆弱性和适应评估的办法。 选择酸樱桃产业作为原型产业是因为世界上90%的生产集中在北美和中欧的9个国家。 此外，该行业对极端气候高度敏感，并且与许多其他行业一样，规划期很长，需要长期投资才能实现回报。 这项研究的潜在贡献包括更好地了解一个行业的地方和全球脆弱性，新兴和衰退的生产地区对区域经济发展的影响，国际产品和市场差异作为可能的适应战略，以及信贷和保险在管理风险中的作用。 一个重要的目标是制定评估气候影响、脆弱性和适应性的改进方法。 这项研究的最终成果对任何易受气候变化影响的商品市场也将具有重要意义，并将使利益攸关方和决策者能够更好地预测变化的复杂后果，这一项目将由一个多学科研究小组进行，该小组由美国和国际科学家组成，他们在农业经济学、气候学、计算机科学、经济学、地理和园艺 要实现项目目标，必须召开两次小组会议，一次是在规划期开始时，项目小组将细化目标，并为下一年制定个人和小组任务，另一次是在规划期结束时，将细化概念框架和方法。 最终目标是了解气候作为包括政治和经济风险在内的变化因素之一的相对重要性。

Climate change is one of many potential influences on economic activities. The impact of climate change may either be enhanced or mitigated by existing conditions of an economic system such as international trade, production areas and markets, and by evolving adjustment decisions within an industry. As a result, assessing the potential impacts of climate change and their relative importance compared to other agents of change such as political risk is difficult, especially for economic activities with multiple, world-wide linkages. This exploratory project will use a modest-sized, yet international, industry as a prototype to develop approaches for improving the assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The tart-cherry industry was chosen as the prototype industry because ninety percent of world production is concentrated in only nine countries in North America and Central Europe. Furthermore, this industry is highly sensitive to climate extremes, and, like many others, has a long planning horizon and requires long-term investments before returns are realized. Potential contributions of this research include a better understanding of local and global vulnerabilities of an industry, the impact of emerging and declining production regions on regional economic development, international product and market differentiation as possible adaptation strategies, and the role of credit and insurance in managing risk. An important goal is to develop improved methods for assessing climate impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. The eventual products of the research also will have significance for any commodity market that is vulnerable to climate variations and change and will allow stakeholders and decision makers to better anticipate the complex consequences of change.This project will be undertaken by a multidisciplinary team of researchers composed of United States and international scientists with specialties in the areas of agricultural economics, climatology, computer science, economics, geography, and horticulture. Essential to meeting the goals of the project are two team meetings, one near the beginning of the planning period where the project team will refine objectives and set individual and group tasks for the following year and a second workshop toward the end of the planning period where the conceptual framework and methods will be refined. The ultimate goal is to understand the relative importance of climate as one agent of change among others including political and economic risk.