CNH: Towards an Integrated Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems with Long-Term Investments

CNH：通过长期投资建立国际市场体系气候变化影响评估综合框架

• 批准号: 0909378
• 负责人: Julie Winkler
• 金额: $ 149.98万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-10-01 至 2015-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0909378&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Towards; Integrated; Framework; Climate

Climate change is expected to have a substantial influence on a broad spectrum of natural and human systems, yet many of the methods and approaches currently used to evaluate the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change are insufficient. The large majority of climate change assessments have focused on how a local/regional process or system may be affected by a perturbed climate. These traditional assessments usually have not explicitly considered the evolution over time of individual system components, such as climate, other biophysical factors, economic impacts, individual decision-making, and policy formulation. Few assessments have examined temporal changes in the interactions among these components, and traditional assessments typically have not incorporated geographic differences in potential impacts and the interactions among geographic regions. International market systems are characterized by multiple production regions distributed worldwide that are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of the linkages among production regions via international trade needs to be realistically considered along with geographic differences in adaptation strategies and policies. Given these demanding requirements, few industry-wide assessments have been attempted that emphasize the need for enhanced methods for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on international industries. This international collaborative research project will develop and evaluate an integrated framework for climate change assessments for international market systems that simultaneously and explicitly considers spatial and temporal dynamics of natural and human systems at multiple scales from the local to the global and from the individual to an industry. The investigators will pay special emphasis to industries with long-term investments, with much of their attention given to studies of the tart cherry industry in the central U.S. and central Europe. They will combine dynamic modeling of temporally evolving system components with static modeling for those components where dynamic modeling is not feasible. A chain of linked models will assess the potential impact of a changing climate on a market system for each of a series of future time slices; succeeding time slices will be connected by projections in adaptation options, economic factors such as consumer preferences, and regional development patterns. The model chain will include a hybrid approach to the downscaling of future climate projections, a production model, an individual-level decision-making model, and an international trade model. Numerous technical and implementation challenges will be investigated and addressed using an example industry involving a specialized perennial agricultural commodity as proof of concept. In addition to the technical advances made possible by the proposed framework, this research will contribute to the development and growth of a diverse pool of undergraduate and graduate students with expertise in international, interdisciplinary research and will provide informal education to the general public on potential impacts of climate change.This project will advance basic understanding of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on dynamic, interactive worldwide activities and systems. It will enhance methodologies for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, it will improve the characterizations of past, current, and future climates, and it will incorporate individual decision making and adaptation into assessment processes. It also will provide a novel approach for evaluating the overall uncertainty, or "meta-uncertainty," of assessment outcomes. More broadly, the framework developed by the project can potentially be transformative in terms of how climate change assessments are conducted, and it could help shape international environmental policy formulation to take into account the spatial interactions of worldwide activities. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

预计气候变化将对广泛的自然和人类系统产生重大影响，但目前用于评估气候变化的影响、适应和脆弱性的许多方法和办法是不够的。 绝大多数气候变化评估都侧重于当地/区域过程或系统如何受到扰动气候的影响。 这些传统的评估通常没有明确考虑到各个系统组成部分随时间的演变，如气候、其他生物物理因素、经济影响、个人决策和政策制定。 很少有评估审查这些组成部分之间相互作用的时间变化，传统的评估通常没有考虑到潜在影响的地理差异和地理区域之间的相互作用。 国际市场体系的特点是分布在世界各地的多个生产区域，这些区域可能受到气候变化的不同影响。 此外，还需要现实地考虑生产区域之间通过国际贸易产生的联系的时间演变，同时沿着适应战略和政策的地理差异。 鉴于这些苛刻的要求，很少尝试进行全行业评估，强调需要改进评估气候变化对国际工业的潜在影响的方法。 这一国际合作研究项目将为国际市场体系制定和评估气候变化评估综合框架，同时明确考虑从地方到全球、从个人到行业的多个尺度上自然和人类系统的时空动态。 调查人员将特别关注具有长期投资的行业，他们的大部分注意力都集中在对美国中部和中欧酸樱桃行业的研究上。 他们将把随时间变化的系统部件的联合收割机动态建模与动态建模不可行的部件的静态建模结合起来。 一系列相互关联的模型将评估气候变化对未来一系列时间段中的每一个时间段的市场体系的潜在影响;随后的时间段将通过适应备选办法、消费者偏好等经济因素和区域发展模式的预测连接起来。 该模型链将包括一个缩小未来气候预测尺度的混合方法、一个生产模型、一个个人决策模型和一个国际贸易模型。 将使用涉及专业多年生农业商品的示例行业作为概念验证，调查和解决许多技术和实施挑战。 除了拟议的框架可能带来的技术进步外，这项研究将有助于发展和壮大具有国际跨学科研究专长的多样化本科生和研究生人才库，并将向公众提供关于气候变化潜在影响的非正式教育。全球互动活动和系统。 它将加强评估气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性的方法，它将改进对过去、当前和未来气候的描述，它将把个人决策和适应纳入评估进程。 它还将为评估结果的总体不确定性或“元不确定性”提供一种新的方法。 更广泛地说，该项目制定的框架可能在如何进行气候变化评估方面具有变革性，它可以帮助制定国际环境政策，以考虑到世界各地活动的空间相互作用。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划支持。