A Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis

该CME协作计划通过部署新的网络设施“PetaSHA”将概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）转变为基于物理的科学，该设施可以使用国家的千万亿次计算资源执行PSHA计算路径并管理数据量。本计画的目标是以三个科学方向来阐述：（1）将强地震动的确定性模拟延伸至3Hz，以探讨确定性地震动预测的频率上限。(2)将动态破裂模拟的分辨率提高一个数量级，以研究实际摩擦规律、地质非均匀性和近断层应力状态对地震辐射的影响。(3)计算基于物理的PSHA地图，并使用地震和古地震数据对其进行验证。研究人员将组装和操作一个由四个计算平台组成的网络设施，每个平台旨在执行和管理特定PSHA计算路径的结果。其中两个平台OpenSHA和TeraShake是由CME项目开发的。PetaShake将是一个先进的研究平台，用于动态断裂和地面运动的千万亿次模拟，具有千万亿次计算能力，并将能够存档完整的模拟数据量（千万亿次数据密集型计算）。CyberShake将是一个新的生产平台，将采用先进的工作流程管理工具来计算和存储基于物理的PSHA映射所需的大型地面运动模拟套件。他们将通过一系列与时间轴相关的分级计算，在复杂性和规模上推进这些计算平台，并明确衡量成功，还将为更广泛的社区开发一套科学网关，特别是参与EarthScope和NEES项目的研究人员，以提供PSHA模拟能力和数据产品。目标包括交叉培训不同群体的本科实习生和早期职业科学家，使他们能够解决基本问题。

This CME Collaboration proposes to transform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) into a physics-based science by deploying a new cyberfacility "PetaSHA" that can execute PSHA computational pathways and manage data volumes using the nation's petascale computing resources. The objectives of the project have been formulated in terms of three science thrusts: (1) Extend deterministic simulations of strong ground motions to 3 Hz for investigating the upper frequency limit of deterministic ground-motion prediction. (2) Improve the resolution of dynamic rupture simulationsby an order of magnitude for investigating the effects of realistic friction laws, geologic heterogeneity, and near-fault stress states on seismic radiation. (3) Compute physics-based PSHA maps and validate them using seismic and paleoseismic data. The investigators will assemble and operate a cyberfacility comprising four computational platforms, each designed to execute and manage the results from specific PSHA computational pathways. Two of these platforms, OpenSHA and TeraShake, have been developed by the CME Project. PetaShake will be an advanced research platform for petascale simulations of dynamic ruptures and ground motions with petascale capability computing and will be able to archive complete simulation data volumes (petascale data-intensive computing). CyberShake will be a new production platform that will employ advanced workflow management tools to compute and store the large suites of ground motion simulations needed for physics-based PSHA mapping. They will move these computational platforms forward in complexity and scale through a graduated series of calculations tied to a timeline with clear measures of success and will also develop a set of science gateways for the broader community, in particular researchers involved in the EarthScope and NEES Projects, to provide access to PSHA simulation capabilities and data products. The objectives include the cross-training of diverse groups of undergraduate interns and early-career scientists that will enable them to solve fundamental problems.