RAPID: Real-Time Investigations of the Tohoku and Darfield Earthquake Sequences

2010年达菲尔德（新西兰）和2011年东北（日本）引发的地震序列是在两个不同且设备齐全的构造实验室进行的自然实验。这个NSF项目支持美国科学家与他们的日本和新西兰同事合作参与这些实验。国际项目团队正在获得有关短期地震可预测性的新知识，这是物理科学的一个主要未解决问题。智力价值：该项目的目标是改进时间依赖地震预报的物理和统计基础。利用地震可预测性研究合作实验室现有的基础设施，正在开发和评估结合地震、大地测量和其他数据的新预报模型。研究主要集中在两个方面：(a)基于物理的预测模型的回顾性校准和前瞻性测试，包括基于速率/状态依赖摩擦、库仑应力函数和慢滑事件观测的预测模型；(b)对预测大地震至关重要的假设的评估，包括特征地震假设、地震间隙假设和最大震级假设。更广泛的影响：本项目资助的基础研究阐明了与初级和次级地震灾害的时间变化有关的关键科学问题。这些结果将帮助加利福尼亚地震概率工作组制定一个改进的、随时间变化的统一加利福尼亚地震破裂预报，它们还将帮助美国地质调查局和国家海洋和大气管理局改进它们对卡斯卡迪亚海岸地震和海啸灾害随时间变化的预报程序。

The earthquake sequences excited by 2010 Darfield (New Zealand) and 2011 Tohoku (Japan) are natural experiments being conducted in two distinctive and well-instrumented tectonic laboratories. This NSF project supports U.S. scientists to participate in these experiments by collaborating with their Japanese and New Zealand colleagues. The international project team is gaining new knowledge about short-term earthquake predictability, which is a major unsolved problem of physical science. Intellectual Merit: The project goal is to improve the physical and statistical foundations for time-dependent earthquake forecasting. New forecasting models incorporating seismic, geodetic, and other data are being developed and evaluated using the existing infrastructure of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. The research is focused in two areas: (a) the retrospective calibration and prospective testing of physics-based forecasting models, including those based on rate/state-dependent friction, the Coulomb stress function, and observations of slow slip events, and (b) the evaluation of hypotheses critical to forecasting large earthquakes, including the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, the seismic gap hypothesis, and the maximum-magnitude hypothesis.Broader Impacts: The basic research sponsored by this project is elucidating critical scientific issues related to temporal changes in primary and secondary seismic hazards. The results will help the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities formulate an improved time-dependent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, and they will also aid the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration improve their procedures for time-dependent forecasting of earthquake and tsunami hazards off the Cascadia coast.