DRU: Contending with Materiel Convergence: Optimal Control, Coordination, and Delivery of Critical Supplies to the Site of Extreme Events

该项目提交给人类与社会动力学（HSD）招标（NSF 06-509）的总体目标是开发方法和工具，以促进极端事件现场的动态需求和关键资源（如血液、水）供应之间的加速融合。这些方法将基于社会科学、控制理论和动态供应链的稳健随机优化的概念，目的是减少低优先级商品的不利影响，同时加快高优先级物资向各种响应相关地点的流动。实现该项目的总体目标需要一个建模框架，该框架集成了社会科学、控制理论、供应链的鲁棒性和随机优化等概念，以弥合极端事件发生后关键资源（即现场可用资源、私人捐赠、应急机构提供的资源）的动态需求和供应之间的差距。这些数学程序将用于帮助向公众提供有关捐赠优先次序的建议；这样就减少了以往极端事件中大量非优先捐助妨碍关键资源流动的情况再次发生的可能性。该项目将寻求开发新的分析公式，以便：(1)预测需要什么，对极端事件（例如，对水或食物的需求）后的动态资源需求提供可靠的估计；(2)估计可获得的资源，即现场和邻近区域可获得的关键资源；(3)估算未满足需求的动态格局，即需要运送到现场的东西；(4)在公众和应急机构的捐赠中建立优先分配的最优策略；(5)设计最有效的方式向受影响地区运送、储存和分配关键物资；(6)确定协调有效应对极端事件的体制障碍，并制定克服这些障碍的机制；(7)确定在利益相关者之间实现更紧密的信息技术系统集成的方法。这项工作将在社会科学、控制理论、鲁棒和随机优化、供应链动态建模方面做出科学贡献；提高国家应急能力。作为促进各级学习教育努力的一部分，研究小组将让本科生和中学生参与研究活动，特别强调代表性不足的群体的成员。

The overall goal of this project submitted to the Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) solicitation (NSF 06-509) is to develop methodologies and tools to foster an accelerated convergence between the dynamic needs and supplies of critical resources (e.g., blood, water) to the site of an extreme event. These methodologies will be based on concepts from the social sciences, control theory, and robust stochastic optimization of dynamic supply chains with the aim of reducing adverse impacts of convergent low priority goods, while expediting the flow of high priority supplies to various response related sites. Achieving the overall goal of this project requires a modeling framework that integrates concepts from the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization of supply chains, to bridge the gap between dynamic demand and supply of critical resources (i.e., resources available on site, private donations, resources provided by emergency agencies) after an extreme event. These mathematical procedures would be used to help advise the general public about donation priorities; thus reducing the probability of a repeat of the experience with previous extreme events in which a massive influx of non-priority donations hampered the flow of critical resources. The project would seek to develop novel analytical formulations to: (1) Forecast what is needed, providing robust estimates of the dynamic resource requirements following an extreme event (e.g., demand for water or food); (2) Estimate what is available, i.e., critical resources available on site and in adjacent areas; (3) Estimate the dynamic pattern of unmet needs, i.e., what needs to be transported to the site; (4) Establish an optimal strategy of priority allocation among the donations from the general public and emergency agencies; (5) Design the most effective ways to deliver, store and distribute critical supplies to the impacted area; (6) Identify institutional impediments to coordinate an effective response to extreme events, and formulate mechanisms to overcome these obstacles; and, (7) Identify ways in which tighter integration of the information technology systems can be achieved among stakeholders. The work will lead to scientific contributions in the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization, dynamic modeling of supply chains; and to improve the Nation's emergency response capabilities. As a part of the effort to promote learning education at all levels, the research team will engage both undergraduates and middle school students in research activities with specific emphasis on members of underrepresented groups.