DRU: Contending with Materiel Convergence: Optimal Control, Coordination, and Delivery of Critical Supplies to the Site of Extreme Events

提交给人类和社会动态（HSD）征集（NSF 06-509）的本项目的总体目标是开发方法和工具，以促进关键资源（例如，血液、水）到极端事件的现场。这些方法将基于社会科学，控制理论和动态供应链的鲁棒随机优化的概念，旨在减少收敛低优先级货物的不利影响，同时加快高优先级供应到各种响应相关站点的流动。实现该项目的总体目标需要一个建模框架，该框架整合了社会科学、控制理论、供应链的鲁棒性和随机优化等概念，以弥合关键资源的动态需求和供应之间的差距（即，现场可用资源、私人捐赠、应急机构提供的资源）。这些数学程序将被用来帮助公众了解捐赠的优先顺序;从而减少重复以前极端事件的可能性，在这种极端事件中，非优先捐赠的大量涌入阻碍了关键资源的流动。该项目将寻求开发新的分析公式，以便：（1）预测所需资源，对极端事件后的动态资源需求提供可靠的估计（例如，（2）估计可用的资源，即，现场和邻近地区可用的关键资源;（3）估计未满足需求的动态模式，即，（4）制定一项最佳战略，优先分配来自公众和应急机构的捐款;（5）设计最有效的方式，向受影响地区运送、储存和分发关键物资;（6）确定体制障碍，协调对极端事件的有效反应，并制定克服这些障碍的机制;及（7）找出方法，使各有关方面能更紧密地整合资讯科技系统。这项工作将导致在社会科学，控制理论，鲁棒性和随机优化，供应链的动态建模的科学贡献;并提高国家的应急响应能力。作为促进各级学习教育的努力的一部分，研究小组将让本科生和中学生参与研究活动，特别侧重于代表性不足的群体的成员。

The overall goal of this project submitted to the Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) solicitation (NSF 06-509) is to develop methodologies and tools to foster an accelerated convergence between the dynamic needs and supplies of critical resources (e.g., blood, water) to the site of an extreme event. These methodologies will be based on concepts from the social sciences, control theory, and robust stochastic optimization of dynamic supply chains with the aim of reducing adverse impacts of convergent low priority goods, while expediting the flow of high priority supplies to various response related sites. Achieving the overall goal of this project requires a modeling framework that integrates concepts from the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization of supply chains, to bridge the gap between dynamic demand and supply of critical resources (i.e., resources available on site, private donations, resources provided by emergency agencies) after an extreme event. These mathematical procedures would be used to help advise the general public about donation priorities; thus reducing the probability of a repeat of the experience with previous extreme events in which a massive influx of non-priority donations hampered the flow of critical resources. The project would seek to develop novel analytical formulations to: (1) Forecast what is needed, providing robust estimates of the dynamic resource requirements following an extreme event (e.g., demand for water or food); (2) Estimate what is available, i.e., critical resources available on site and in adjacent areas; (3) Estimate the dynamic pattern of unmet needs, i.e., what needs to be transported to the site; (4) Establish an optimal strategy of priority allocation among the donations from the general public and emergency agencies; (5) Design the most effective ways to deliver, store and distribute critical supplies to the impacted area; (6) Identify institutional impediments to coordinate an effective response to extreme events, and formulate mechanisms to overcome these obstacles; and, (7) Identify ways in which tighter integration of the information technology systems can be achieved among stakeholders. The work will lead to scientific contributions in the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization, dynamic modeling of supply chains; and to improve the Nation's emergency response capabilities. As a part of the effort to promote learning education at all levels, the research team will engage both undergraduates and middle school students in research activities with specific emphasis on members of underrepresented groups.