DRU: Contending with Materiel Convergence: Optimal Control, Coordination, and Delivery of Critical Supplies to the Site of Extreme Events

提交给人类及社会动力学(HSD)征集(NSF 06-509)的这个项目的总体目标是开发方法和工具，以促进极端事件现场关键资源(如血液、水)的动态需求和供应之间的加速融合。这些方法将基于社会科学、控制论和动态供应链的稳健随机优化的概念，目的是减少集中的低优先级货物的不利影响，同时加快高优先级物资流向与应对相关的各个地点。要实现该项目的总体目标，需要一个模型框架，该框架整合了社会科学、控制论、供应链的稳健和随机优化等概念，以弥合极端事件发生后关键资源(即现场可用资源、私人捐款、应急机构提供的资源)的动态需求和供应之间的差距。这些数学程序将被用来帮助向普通公众提供关于捐赠优先次序的建议；从而减少重蹈以往极端事件的覆辙，在这些极端事件中，大量非优先捐款的涌入阻碍了关键资源的流动。该项目将寻求开发新的分析公式，以：(1)预测需要什么，对极端事件(例如对水或食物的需求)后的动态资源需求提供可靠的估计；(2)估计可用的资源，即现场和邻近地区可用的关键资源；(3)估计未得到满足的需求的动态模式，即需要将什么运输到现场；(4)在普通公众和紧急机构的捐款之间建立优先分配的最佳战略；(5)设计向受影响地区运送、储存和分发关键物资的最有效方式；(6)找出协调有效应对极端事件的体制障碍，并制定克服这些障碍的机制；(7)找出可在利益攸关方之间更紧密地整合信息技术系统的方式。这项工作将在社会科学、控制理论、稳健和随机优化、供应链动态建模方面做出科学贡献；并提高国家的应急能力。作为推动各级学习教育努力的一部分，研究小组将让本科生和中学生参与研究活动，重点是代表性不足的群体成员。

The overall goal of this project submitted to the Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) solicitation (NSF 06-509) is to develop methodologies and tools to foster an accelerated convergence between the dynamic needs and supplies of critical resources (e.g., blood, water) to the site of an extreme event. These methodologies will be based on concepts from the social sciences, control theory, and robust stochastic optimization of dynamic supply chains with the aim of reducing adverse impacts of convergent low priority goods, while expediting the flow of high priority supplies to various response related sites. Achieving the overall goal of this project requires a modeling framework that integrates concepts from the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization of supply chains, to bridge the gap between dynamic demand and supply of critical resources (i.e., resources available on site, private donations, resources provided by emergency agencies) after an extreme event. These mathematical procedures would be used to help advise the general public about donation priorities; thus reducing the probability of a repeat of the experience with previous extreme events in which a massive influx of non-priority donations hampered the flow of critical resources. The project would seek to develop novel analytical formulations to: (1) Forecast what is needed, providing robust estimates of the dynamic resource requirements following an extreme event (e.g., demand for water or food); (2) Estimate what is available, i.e., critical resources available on site and in adjacent areas; (3) Estimate the dynamic pattern of unmet needs, i.e., what needs to be transported to the site; (4) Establish an optimal strategy of priority allocation among the donations from the general public and emergency agencies; (5) Design the most effective ways to deliver, store and distribute critical supplies to the impacted area; (6) Identify institutional impediments to coordinate an effective response to extreme events, and formulate mechanisms to overcome these obstacles; and, (7) Identify ways in which tighter integration of the information technology systems can be achieved among stakeholders. The work will lead to scientific contributions in the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization, dynamic modeling of supply chains; and to improve the Nation's emergency response capabilities. As a part of the effort to promote learning education at all levels, the research team will engage both undergraduates and middle school students in research activities with specific emphasis on members of underrepresented groups.