HSD: Dynamics of Reforestation in Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: Modeling Land-Use Decision Making and Policy Impacts

在理解土地利用和土地覆盖变化背景下热带和温带毁林的动态方面取得了相当大的进展。涉及但不是先前研究重点的是导致重新造林的决策动态--这一过程被确定为一种可以抵消全球森林砍伐造成的碳损失的机制。该项目涉及不同级别(地方、州、联邦)的行为者之间的互动如何促进土地利用决策的变化，从而导致森林恢复和保护。研究人员将研究印第安纳州(美国)和圣保罗州(巴西)森林恢复的社会、生物物理和制度动态。这两个州都有从19世纪初开始定居的悠久历史，其中包括快速砍伐森林的轨迹，随后是从农村到城市的移民过程。森林转型理论认为，公民社会和政府法规的转变使从砍伐森林向重新造林的转变成为可能。这项研究将考虑不同的法律制度对森林变化进程中的行为者的影响。研究方法利用卫星图像和为这两个区域开发的地理信息系统数据，包括地形和水文学。将进行家庭调查，以收集关于家庭属性、土地使用偏好和对与资源管理有关的政策的认识的信息。将采访当地政府官员和非政府组织、土地信托基金的管理人员，以及活跃在研究地区的当地利益相关者团体(如农民协会、土地开发商)。这些调查和访谈将被用来为这两个研究地区制定以家庭一级代理人为基础的土地复盖变化模型提供信息。我们将把空间方法与实验经济学中的工具结合起来，作为测试关键决策理论的手段，为基于主体的模型的决策提供信息。拟议的研究的更广泛影响将是它检查为什么某些地区的森林砍伐速度放缓，以及随后导致重新造林的反馈和力量。研究的一个重要部分将是非政府组织在森林恢复工作中发挥的作用。将进一步发展发达经济体森林覆盖率变化的理论，以确定毁林和再造林的动态如何受到地方一级的利益攸关方以及州和联邦变革推动者的影响。这些结果有可能为旨在鼓励重新造林和碳封存的政策和计划提供参考，并有可能缓解气候变化。该项目是印第安纳大学和巴西圣保罗坎皮纳斯大学的研究人员之间的多学科合作，他们将协调该项目的巴西部分。

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the dynamics of tropical and temperate deforestation within the context of land-use and land-cover change. Touched upon, but not as major a focus of prior research, are the decision-making dynamics that lead to reforestation-a process identified as a mechanism that can offset the loss of carbon due to global deforestation. This project addresses how the interactions between actors at different levels (local, state, federal) contribute to changes in land-use decision making that result in forest restoration and protection. The investigators will examine coupled social, biophysical, and institutional dynamics of forest restoration in the states of Indiana (USA) and Sao Paulo (Brazil). Both states share a long history of settlement from the early 19th century that included rapid deforestation trajectories followed by rural-to-urban migration processes. Forest Transition Theory suggests that shifts in civil society and government regulations make the transition from deforestation to reforestation possible. The research will consider the ramifications of the contrasting legal systems for actors in forest change processes. The study methodology utilizes satellite imagery and GIS data developed for both regions, including topography and hydrology. Household surveys will be conducted to collect information on household attributes, land-use preferences, and awareness of policies related to resource management. Interviews will be conducted with local government officials and managers of nongovernmental organizations, land trusts, and local stakeholder groups active in the study areas (e.g., farmer associations, land developers). The surveys and interviews will be used to inform the development of household-level agent-based models of land-cover change in both study areas. We will integrate spatial methods with tools from experimental economics as a means of testing key decision-making theories to inform the decision making in agent-based models.The broader impact of the proposed research will be its examination of why the rate of deforestation slows in some areas and the feedbacks and forces that then lead to reforestation. An important part of the research will be the role that Non-Governmental Organizations play in forest restoration efforts. Theories of forest cover change in developed economies will be further developed to determine how the dynamics of deforestation and reforestation are affected by both local-level stakeholders and state and federal agents of change. The results have the potential to inform policies and programs designed to encourage reforestation and carbon sequestration, and potentially mitigate climate change. This project is a mult-disciplinary collaboration between researchers at Indiana University and at the University of Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil who will coordinate the Brazilian component of this project.