CNH: Institutional Dynamics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Longitudinal Analysis of Snowmelt-Dependent Agricultural Systems

CNH：适应气候变化的制度动态：依赖融雪的农业系统的纵向分析

• 批准号: 1115009
• 负责人: Tom Evans
• 金额: $ 120万
• 依托单位: Indiana University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2016-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1115009&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Institutional; Dynamics; Adaptation; Climate

Global withdrawals of water have doubled over the past 40 years as irrigated agricultural land expanded from 138 million ha to 277 million hectares during the period from 1961 to 2003. Irrigated land is responsible for more than 85 percent of global consumptive water use, producing approximately 45 percent of the global food supply on only 20 percent of global cropland. The combination of the increasing use of irrigation in agricultural production and the importance of snowmelt in many agricultural areas has led to a situation where more than one-sixth of the world's population relies on glaciers and seasonal snow packs as their primary source of streamflow. Climate change processes are projected to impact the amount of snowfall and the seasonality of discharge around the globe. Temperature effects of climate change alone will be sufficient to alter both snowpack accumulation and snowmelt dynamics of many agricultural systems. While additional climate change impacts on growing season rainfall, streamflow, and drought could serve to either exacerbate or mitigate shifts in snowmelt climatology on water available for crops, the dependence on snowmelt and irrigation in many agricultural systems may reduce their ability to respond to future changes. Of additional concern is the fact that many temperate and tropical agricultural areas dependent on glacial meltwater are now facing the threat of complete glacier loss, making climate changes in these regions potentially more disruptive than in areas where only seasonal snowmelt is used as a water resource. In the face of water shortages, governance institutions established to allocate water may be disrupted and forced to change. Critical tensions exist between the potential impacts of climate change and existing and future patterns of water use in regions highly dependent on glacier-fed streamflow for agricultural irrigation. This interdisciplinary research project will examine how human populations will be impacted by these changes and the capacity of users in glacier-irrigated agricultural systems to adapt. The investigators will examine semi-arid agricultural systems that are dependent on snowmelt located across strongly contrasting institutional and hydrological settings in eastern Kenya and the western United States. They will integrate information gathered from focus groups, water-user interviews, field hydrological measurements, role-playing games, and scenario-based models of potential climate change impacts to assess community vulnerability to climate variability and understand how communities might respond to changes in water availability in the future. They will address interactions among human actors, the physical and social capital they construct and maintain, and the dynamics of water availability and allocation across spatial scales.This project will have significant implications for the governance of water resources and how communities and households cope with water scarcity. The empirical analysis of past and present water governance will support the development of scenario-based models of potential climate change impacts to assess community vulnerability to climate variability and to understand how communities might respond to changes in water availability in the future. Findings from this project will be of value to policy makers who are seeking more nuanced policy responses than simple "one size fits all" solutions. Many policy analysts recommend one-type of governance, such as government or private ownership, as being "ideal" to cope with threats to ecological systems. This research will develop new knowledge about the ways in which institutional diversity can contribute to the effective management of water resources. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

在过去40年里，全球取水量翻了一番，因为灌溉农田在1961年至2003年期间从1.38亿公顷扩大到2.77亿公顷。 灌溉土地占全球用水量的85%以上，仅占全球耕地的20%，就生产了全球约45%的粮食供应。 农业生产中越来越多地使用灌溉，加上融雪在许多农业地区的重要性，导致世界上六分之一以上的人口依赖冰川和季节性积雪作为其主要的径流来源。 预计气候变化过程将影响地球仪的降雪量和排放季节性。 仅气候变化的温度效应就足以改变许多农业系统的积雪积累和融雪动态。 虽然气候变化对生长季节降雨、径流和干旱的额外影响可能会加剧或缓解融雪气候学对作物可用水的变化，但许多农业系统对融雪和灌溉的依赖可能会降低其应对未来变化的能力。 另一个令人关切的问题是，许多依赖冰川融水的温带和热带农业地区现在正面临冰川完全消失的威胁，使这些地区的气候变化可能比仅将季节性融雪用作水资源的地区更具破坏性。 面对水资源短缺，为分配水资源而建立的治理机构可能会被打乱，并被迫改变。 气候变化的潜在影响与农业灌溉高度依赖冰川径流的地区现有和未来的用水模式之间存在着严重的紧张关系。 这一跨学科研究项目将研究人类人口将如何受到这些变化的影响，以及冰川灌溉农业系统用户的适应能力。 研究人员将研究依赖于融雪的半干旱农业系统，这些系统位于肯尼亚东部和美国西部的制度和水文环境之间，形成强烈对比。 它们将整合从重点小组、用水者访谈、实地水文测量、角色扮演游戏和基于内罗毕的潜在气候变化影响模型中收集的信息，以评估社区对气候变异的脆弱性，并了解社区如何应对未来水资源供应的变化。 这些项目将探讨人类行为者之间的相互作用、他们建立和维持的物质资本和社会资本，以及水的供应和跨空间分配的动态，对水资源的治理以及社区和家庭如何科普缺水问题具有重大影响。 对过去和现在水治理的经验分析将支持开发基于内罗毕的潜在气候变化影响模型，以评估社区对气候变异的脆弱性，并了解社区如何应对未来水供应的变化。 该项目的研究结果将对决策者有价值，因为他们正在寻求更细致的政策反应，而不是简单的“一刀切”的解决办法。许多政策分析家推荐一种类型的治理，如政府或私人所有制，作为“理想的”，以科普对生态系统的威胁。 这项研究将发展新的知识，了解机构多样性如何有助于水资源的有效管理。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划支持。

项目成果

Causes and Consequences of Local Government Efforts to Reduce Risk and Adapt to Extreme Weather Events: Municipal Organizational Robustness

• DOI: 10.3390/su13147980
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Sustainability
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: P. Valdivieso;Pablo Neudorfer;Krister P. Andersson