U.S.-GLOBEC: NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: A Synthesis of Climate-Forced Variability on Mesoscale Structure in the CGOA With Direct Comparisons to the CCS

在美国GLOBEC监测和NEP过程研究期间(1997-2004年)，发生了各种极端气候事件。这为研究阿拉斯加湾沿岸经历的一系列气候变化提供了前所未有的机会。通过将这些气候事件与区域物理和生物观测联系起来，使用多种不同的数据来源(GLOBEC观测、历史数据集和再分析、卫星、模型)，我们可以确定这些事件如何影响CGOA及其相关目标群体的中尺度海洋变异性(NEP计划的主要目标)。然后，我们可以直接将这些反应与加州电流系统(CCS)中明显的反应进行比较。这个项目有两个首要目标。1)确定表明气候事件的流域尺度变化与影响生态系统格局、结构和生产力的中尺度变化的当地CGOA变化之间的联系。2)比较阿拉斯加湾沿岸(CGOA)和CCS中明显的盆地规模和地方结构之间的联系，对比不同生态系统对相同气候信号的反应。重点是综合物理环流、上层海洋结构、营养物和下层(浮游)营养水平，以跨越广泛空间和时间尺度的多个数据集为基础制定衡量标准。资助的GLOBEC-NEP第三阶段向相同的个人投资机构提出建议，在加州当前的系统中进行类似的分析，这在财务和智力上都提供了重要的杠杆作用。这支研究团队代表了气候、中尺度相互作用和数据分析的不同方面的专业知识。他们将使用相关的方法来表征CGOA的中尺度变异性和实地方案年期间的同时流域尺度条件，然后在可能的情况下将这些比较延长到时间上。他们将在流域尺度和中尺度模式之间的这些相互联系的基础上，从三个角度审查这些联系背后的机制：1)比较气候变率的年际和年代际尺度；2)查明和比较CGOA中气候反应的不同陆架区域；3)研究季节信号的变化。然后，他们将比较和对比在CCS中观察到的信号和CGOA中观察到的信号。更广泛的影响：该项目将以分析(论文)、数据集和CGOA中用于监测、评估和管理海洋资源的指数的形式，为GLOBEC NEP计划的遗产做出贡献。通过综合和分析多个数据集，调查人员将提供关于CGOA大陆架对气候变化反应的有力指标，这是资源评估和管理的有用工具。阿拉斯加大陆架生态系统管理战略的改进直接影响到美国西海岸的一个大的社会经济部门。两名研究生在CCS和CGOA的努力下获得资助。一些卫星和调查数据集也将被纳入俄亥俄州立大学微笑方案正在开发的课程材料中。这些材料在俄勒冈州的12个高中学区使用，其中很大比例的学生来自传统上在大学科学和数学系中代表性不足的群体。他们可以在其他地方的学校使用。

A variety of extreme climate events occurred during the period of US GLOBEC monitoring and process studies in the NEP (1997-2004). These provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine a range of climate variability experienced by the coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). By relating these climate events to regional physical and biological observations, using multiple and diverse data sources (GLOBEC observations, historical data sets and reanalyses, satellites, models), we can determine how these events affect mesoscale ocean variability in the CGOA and its related target populations (the primary goal of the NEP program). We can then directly compare these responses to those evident in the California Current System (CCS). There are two overarching goals for this project. 1) Characterize the linkages between basin-scale variability indicative of climate events and local CGOA changes in mesoscale variability that impact ecosystem pattern, structure and productivity. 2) Compare the linkages between basin-scale and local structure in the coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) with those evident in the CCS, contrasting differing ecosystem responses to the same climate signals. The emphasis is on synthesis of physical circulation, upper ocean structure, nutrients and lower (planktonic) trophic levels to develop metrics based on multiple data sets spanning a wide spectrum of space and time scales. A funded GLOBEC-NEP Phase IIIa proposal to the same PIs to carry out similar analyses in the California Current System provides significant leverage, both financially and intellectually. This team of investigators represents expertise in diverse aspects of climate mesoscale interactions and data analysis. They will use correlative methods to characterize mesoscale variability in the CGOA and the concurrent basin-scale conditions during Field Program years, and then extend these comparisons back in time where possible. They will build on these correlational linkages between basin-scale and mesoscale patterns, examining the mechanisms behind these linkages from three points of view: i) comparing interannual and decadal scales of climate variability, ii) identifying and comparing different shelf regions of climate response in the CGOA, and iii) examining changes in seasonal signals. They will then compare and contrast signals observed in the CCS to those in the CGOA. BROADER IMPACTS: This project will contribute to the legacy of the GLOBEC NEP program in the form of analyses (papers), data sets, and indices for monitoring, assessing, and managing marine resources in the CGOA. By integrating and analyzing multiple data sets, the investigators will provide robust indicators of the response of the CGOA shelf to climate change, a useful tool for resource assessment and management. Improvement of ecosystem management strategies for the Alaskan shelf directly affects a large socio-economic sector of the US west coast. Two graduate students are funded under our CCS and CGOA efforts. Some of the satellite and survey data sets will also be incorporated into curriculum material that is under development within the OSU SMILE program. These materials are used in twelve Oregon high school districts with large proportions of students from groups traditionally under-represented in university science and mathematics departments. They are available for use in schools elsewhere.