U.S.-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Environmental influences on growth and survival of Southeast Alaska Coho Salmon in Contrast with Other NortheastPacific Regions

尽管GLOBEC NEP的实地采样、回溯性分析和建模、较强的比较成分和对1999/2000年环境变化的观察，对鲑鱼丰度的预测性了解仍然不足。尽管与(1)鱼类存活率的年度变化和(2)幼鱼的空间分布有关的物理/生物条件无法描述，但解释它们的基本机制或两者之间的联系都不清楚。这一建议旨在通过使用比较方法来实现理解和可预测性，同时合成几个关于Coho鲑鱼的数据集。GLOBEC在阿拉斯加东南部(SEAK)和加利福尼亚洋流系统(CCS)对该物种进行了研究，其丰度在这两个系统中呈反向变化。将描述在GLOBEC NEP资助的Seak研究中发现幼鲑鱼的生物学/物理条件，以及一个地点8年来和另一个地点4年来幼鲑鱼栖息地的变化。基于个体的模型将被用来评估这些栖息地对幼鱼生长和死亡的优势，并描述个体如何与这种空间分布相互作用。GLOBEC-NEP资助的一项关于潜在捕食者缓冲效应的回溯性研究的结果将在时间和空间上扩展。将根据当地的风向和环流，制定具有重要生物意义的物理条件的当地指标，以研究西风漂流(WWD)分叉以北海岸的个别种群的反应。横跨两个系统的编码线标记数据集将与NEP中的GLOBEC观测一起使用，以得出一个在两个系统中一致的Coho鲑鱼早期生活史模型，但每个系统可能具有不同的物理作用力。该项目的最终产品是影响鲑鱼存活和产卵年龄的年度海洋条件指标。这一指标将在短期内直接用于渔业管理，并在长期内减少围绕影响鲑鱼生命周期淡水阶段的因素管理的不确定性和争议性。该项目包括一名研究生和一名博士后。

A predictive understanding of salmon abundance is still lacking despite GLOBEC NEP's program of field sampling, retrospective analysis and modeling, a strong comparative component and observation of an environmental shift in 1999/2000. Although the physical/biological conditions associated with (1) annual variability in fish survival, and (2) the spatial distribution of juveniles are amenable to description, neither the underlying mechanisms to explain them nor the link between two are known. This proposal aims to achieve both understanding and predictability by using a comparative approach while synthesizing several data sets for coho salmon. This species was studied by GLOBEC in both Southeast Alaska (SEAK) and the California Current System (CCS), and its abundance covaries inversely in the two systems. The biological/physical conditions under which juvenile coho salmon were found in GLOBEC NEP-funded studies in SEAK and the variation of the juvenile salmon habitat over 8 years at one location and 4 years at another will be described. An individual-based model will be employed to assess the advantages of these habitats to growth and mortality of juvenile coho salmon, and to describe how individual salmon could interact with such spatial distributions. The findings of a GLOBEC-NEP funded retrospective study regarding potential predator buffering effects will be extended in time and space. Local indicators of biologically important physical conditions, based on local winds and general circulation, will be developed to study the response of individual stocks along the coast north of the bifurcation of the West Wind Drift (WWD). The coded wire tag data set, which spans both systems, will be used together with GLOBEC observations in the NEP to derive a model of coho salmon early life history that is consistent across the two systems, but can have different physical forcing in each.The ultimate product of this project is an indicator of annual ocean conditions that affect salmon survival and age of spawning. This indicator will be directly useful in the short term in fishery management and in the long term by reducing the uncertainty and contentiousness surrounding management of factors influencing the freshwater phase of the salmon lifecycle. This project includes a graduate student and a postdoc.