U.S.-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Environmental influences on growth and survival of Southeast Alaska Coho Salmon in Contrast with Other NortheastPacific Regions

尽管GLOBEC NEP的实地采样，回顾性分析和建模，一个强大的比较组成部分和观察1999/2000年的环境变化的方案，鲑鱼丰度的预测性了解仍然缺乏。虽然与（1）鱼类存活的年度变化和（2）幼鱼的空间分布有关的物理/生物条件是可以描述的，但解释它们的基本机制和两者之间的联系都是未知的。该提案旨在通过使用比较方法，同时综合几组银鲑数据，实现理解和可预测性。GLOBEC在阿拉斯加东南部（SEAK）和加州海流系统（CCS）都对该物种进行了研究，其丰度在两个系统中呈反比。生物/物理条件下，青少年coho鲑鱼被发现在GLOBEC NEP资助的研究在SEAK和青少年鲑鱼栖息地的变化超过8年在一个位置和4年在另一个将被描述。一个基于个人的模型将被用来评估这些栖息地的优势，青少年银鲑的生长和死亡率，并描述如何个别鲑鱼可以与这种空间分布相互作用。GLOBEC-NEP资助的关于潜在捕食者缓冲效应的回顾性研究的结果将在时间和空间上扩展。将根据当地风和大气环流，制定生物重要物理条件的当地指标，以研究西风漂流分叉以北沿海沿着个股的反应。编码线标签数据集，它跨越了两个系统，将被用来与GLOBEC的观测在NEP得出一个模型的银鲑早期生活史是一致的，在两个系统，但可以有不同的物理forcing在each.The最终产品的这个项目是一个指标，每年的海洋条件，影响鲑鱼的生存和产卵年龄。这一指标将在短期内直接用于渔业管理，并在长期内减少影响鲑鱼生命周期淡水阶段的因素的管理的不确定性和争议。该项目包括一名研究生和一名博士后。

A predictive understanding of salmon abundance is still lacking despite GLOBEC NEP's program of field sampling, retrospective analysis and modeling, a strong comparative component and observation of an environmental shift in 1999/2000. Although the physical/biological conditions associated with (1) annual variability in fish survival, and (2) the spatial distribution of juveniles are amenable to description, neither the underlying mechanisms to explain them nor the link between two are known. This proposal aims to achieve both understanding and predictability by using a comparative approach while synthesizing several data sets for coho salmon. This species was studied by GLOBEC in both Southeast Alaska (SEAK) and the California Current System (CCS), and its abundance covaries inversely in the two systems. The biological/physical conditions under which juvenile coho salmon were found in GLOBEC NEP-funded studies in SEAK and the variation of the juvenile salmon habitat over 8 years at one location and 4 years at another will be described. An individual-based model will be employed to assess the advantages of these habitats to growth and mortality of juvenile coho salmon, and to describe how individual salmon could interact with such spatial distributions. The findings of a GLOBEC-NEP funded retrospective study regarding potential predator buffering effects will be extended in time and space. Local indicators of biologically important physical conditions, based on local winds and general circulation, will be developed to study the response of individual stocks along the coast north of the bifurcation of the West Wind Drift (WWD). The coded wire tag data set, which spans both systems, will be used together with GLOBEC observations in the NEP to derive a model of coho salmon early life history that is consistent across the two systems, but can have different physical forcing in each.The ultimate product of this project is an indicator of annual ocean conditions that affect salmon survival and age of spawning. This indicator will be directly useful in the short term in fishery management and in the long term by reducing the uncertainty and contentiousness surrounding management of factors influencing the freshwater phase of the salmon lifecycle. This project includes a graduate student and a postdoc.