The Grinnell Project: Using a Unique Historical Record to Document Responses of Mammals and Birds to 100 Years of Climate Change

全球变暖对物种分布和多样性的影响引起了社会和科学界的强烈兴趣。然而，由于历史记录很少有必要的细节来衡量对过去变暖的多年反应，大多数注意力都集中在使用模型来预测未来的反应上。本研究对加利福尼亚80个高海拔地区的鸟类和哺乳动物的多样性进行了调查，这些地区从20世纪初就有了广泛的博物馆记录。研究的目的是：(1)测量过去100年气候变化对物种多样性的影响，(2)测试预测气候变化对物种分布影响的替代方法，(3)使用历史验证的模型，预测对未来气候变化的反应。该项目将记录全球生物多样性热点地区物种对气候变化的反应。通过对观测到的变化测试预测模型，研究人员将为预测下个世纪的变化提供更坚实的基础。学生将接受实地方法、数据管理和建模方面的培训。研究结果将立即在博物馆的网站上公布，这将为研究人员和公众了解未来一个世纪物种多样性的变化提供另一个基准。

There is intense societal and scientific interest in effects of global warming on species' distributions and diversity. However, because there are so few historical records with the detail necessary to measure multi-decadal responses to past warming, most attention has been on using models to predict future responses. The present study resurveys bird and mammal diversity across 80 high-elevation sites in California for which there is an extensive, museum-based record from the early 20th C. The aims are to (i) measure how changes in climate over the past 100 years have affected species diversity, (ii) test alternative methods for predicting effects of climate change on species' distributions, and (iii) using historically-verified models, predict responses to future climate change.The project will document species' responses to changing climate in a global biodiversity hotspot. By testing predictive models against the observed changes, the investigators will provide a stronger foundation for forecasting changes over the coming century. Students will be trained in field methods, data management and modeling. The results, to be made available immediately through the Museum's web site, will provide another benchmark to which researchers and public alike can turn to understand changes in species diversity over the coming century.