The Grinnell Project: Using a Unique Historical Record to Document Responses of Mammals and Birds to 100 Years of Climate Change

全球变暖对物种分布和多样性的影响引起了社会和科学的强烈兴趣。然而，由于几乎没有详细的历史记录来衡量过去几十年来对气候变暖的反应，因此最受关注的是使用模型来预测未来的反应。这项研究重新调查了加州80个高海拔地区的鸟类和哺乳动物多样性，这些地点有20世纪初广泛的博物馆记录。其目的是(I)测量过去100年的气候变化如何影响物种多样性，(Ii)测试预测气候变化对物种分布影响的替代方法，以及(Iii)使用历史验证的模型，预测未来气候变化的反应。该项目将记录物种对全球生物多样性热点地区气候变化的反应。通过针对观察到的变化测试预测模型，研究人员将为预测下个世纪的变化提供更坚实的基础。学生将接受实地方法、数据管理和建模方面的培训。结果将立即在博物馆的网站上公布，将为研究人员和公众提供另一个基准，以了解下个世纪物种多样性的变化。

There is intense societal and scientific interest in effects of global warming on species' distributions and diversity. However, because there are so few historical records with the detail necessary to measure multi-decadal responses to past warming, most attention has been on using models to predict future responses. The present study resurveys bird and mammal diversity across 80 high-elevation sites in California for which there is an extensive, museum-based record from the early 20th C. The aims are to (i) measure how changes in climate over the past 100 years have affected species diversity, (ii) test alternative methods for predicting effects of climate change on species' distributions, and (iii) using historically-verified models, predict responses to future climate change.The project will document species' responses to changing climate in a global biodiversity hotspot. By testing predictive models against the observed changes, the investigators will provide a stronger foundation for forecasting changes over the coming century. Students will be trained in field methods, data management and modeling. The results, to be made available immediately through the Museum's web site, will provide another benchmark to which researchers and public alike can turn to understand changes in species diversity over the coming century.