Emergent Behavior of Coupled Human-Landscape Systems

数千年来，人类和自然景观一直在相互作用，但这种相互作用的强度一直在增加。这些强化互动的后果以及社会可能采取的影响其进程的行动在很大程度上仍然未知。为了解决这一差距，性质和类型的行为，导致人类和景观密切互动时，将调查与数字模型开发，模型测试，个性化和课堂教学和公共宣传的综合方案，两个具体的情况：屏障岛度假胜地，如美国东海岸，和山区城市荒地接口，如在洛杉矶的边缘。将开发数字模型，包括经济和管理行为体的行为和景观对自然过程和人类影响的反应方式的表示。我们将致力于向其他研究人员、学生、政策管理人员和公众传达研究结果和影响。障壁岛是与大陆海岸平行并被泻湖隔开的低洼地带，被入口切断，顶部是沙丘;它们是受欢迎的度假胜地。障壁岛是通过跟踪其形状和体积的变化来模拟的：风暴和波浪引起的海滩侵蚀和沉积。度假村的经济学模型使用两个市场：酒店建设/购买/销售市场，连接利润最大化的开发商和酒店所有者;和旅游市场，连接酒店所有者和寻求最佳度假体验的游客。模型中的管理人员拓宽了海滩并建立了沙丘，以抵御风暴并提高海滩质量。该模型将根据美国东海岸的历史测量数据进行测试，并将用于探索屏障岛度假胜地如何应对海平面上升和全球气候变化导致的风暴增加。山区集水区的边缘提供了有吸引力的住宅属性，但开发受到一系列重大危害的影响。在为城市-荒地边界区开发的模型中，灌木丛植被在火灾之间生长;野火消耗植被和住宅并促进侵蚀;山体滑坡、洪水和携带沉积物的泥石流破坏或摧毁住宅;开发商建造住房开发项目，其规模和位置基于预期利润;居民根据预期升值和景观和通勤距离等属性购买房屋。模型中的管理人员批准开发;通过规定的燃烧来减轻火灾;通过斜坡稳定、泥石流盆地、水库和通道稳定和壕沟来减轻山体滑坡、洪水和泥石流;以及扑灭火灾。洛杉矶火灾、洪水和城市扩张的历史数据将被用于测试该模型，城市化对火灾规模和频率的影响，以及在不同管理策略下城市-荒地边界在空间和时间上的长期变化将被调查。这项研究直接关系到与人类对自然环境的侵犯和灾害管理有关的社会相关问题和政策决定。其更广泛的影响将包括个性化和课堂教学，与沿海管理人员的会议和公共宣传。将向一名研究生和三名本科生介绍解决这类问题的技术并对其进行培训，还将教授一门题为“城市景观”的加州大学圣地亚哥分校课程，以教育更多的学生。研究结果将通过网页、该项目制作的两个广播节目以及阿萨蒂格岛国家海滨游客中心的海报和计算机展览向科学家和公众展示。

Human populations and landscapes have been interacting for thousands of years, but the strength of these interactions has been increasing. The consequences of these intensified interactions and the actions that society could take to affect their course remain largely unknown. To address this gap, the nature and types of behaviors that result when humans and landscapes closely interact will be investigated with an integrated program of numerical model development, model testing, individualized and classroom instruction and public outreach for two specific cases: barrier island resorts, such as on the US east coast, and mountainous urban-wildland interfaces, such as on the margins of Los Angeles. Numerical models will be developed that include representations of both the behavior of economic and management actors and the ways in which landscapes respond to natural processes and human influence. Significant effort will be devoted to communicating the results and implications to other researchers, students, policy managers and the general public.Barrier islands are low-lying strips of sand that are parallel to and separated from the mainland coast by lagoons, cut by inlets, and topped by sand dunes; they are popular vacation destinations. Barrier islands are modeled by tracking changes to their shape and volume from: beach erosion and deposition owing to storms and waves. The economics of resorts are modeled using two markets: a hotel building/buying/selling market, which connects profit-maximizing developers and hotel owners; and a tourism market, which connects hotel owners with tourists seeking the best vacation experience for their money. Managers in the model widen the beach and build up dunes to protect against storms and enhance beach quality. The model will be tested against historical measurements from the US east coast and will be used to explore how barrier island resorts respond to rising sea level and increased storminess resulting from global climate change.The margins of mountain catchments offer attractive residential attributes, but development is subject to an array of significant hazards. In the model being developed for the urban-wildland boundary zone, shrubland vegetation grows between fires; wildfires consume vegetation and residences and promote erosion; landslides, floods and sediment-laden debris flows damage or destroy residences; developers build housing developments whose size and location are based on projected profits; and residents buy houses based on projected appreciation and attributes such as view and commute distance. Managers in the model approve developments; mitigate fires with prescribed burns; mitigate landslides, floods and debris flows with slope stabilization, debris basins, reservoirs and channel stabilization and entrenchment; and suppress fires. Historical data on fires, floods and urban expansion in Los Angeles will be used to test the model, and the effect of urbanization on fire size and frequency and the long-term change through space and time of the urban-wildland boundary under differing management strategies will be investigated.This research bears directly on societally relevant problems and policy decisions associated with human encroachment on the natural environment and disaster management. Its broader impact will include individualized and classroom instruction, meetings with coastal managers and public outreach. One graduate student and three undergraduates will be introduced to and trained in techniques to address this category of problems and a UCSD course entitled Urban Landscapes will be taught to educate a broader group of students. The results will be presented to scientists and the public in web pages, two radio programs that will be produced from this project, and as a poster and computer exhibit at the Assateague Island National Seashore Visitor Center.