RAPID: Coupled Contagion, Behavior-Change, and the Dynamics of Pro- and Anti-Social Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic

当前的新冠肺炎大流行既涉及巨大的风险，也涉及对这种风险的巨大不确定性，规模之大前所未有，涉及人口和文化背景。个体如何解释、理解和应对这种风险，对新冠肺炎病毒的传播具有重要影响。这项研究利用SARS-CoV-2在不同社区、地区和国家的反应中普遍存在的情况，测试有关行为规范传播的理论，将个人特征(身份、同源性、传播偏见，如一致性或声望风险管理，以及人口统计学)、关于病毒的信息来源以及对传播的影响联系起来。耦合传染模型往往局限于概念的论证。将实时行为反应数据纳入夫妻传染的建模中，通过促进亲社会行为，改善了流行病控制的前景。该项目将培训来自代表性不足的少数民族的学生和一名流行病学博士后学者。结果将立即向公众公布，并将为教育材料的开发提供信息。这个项目将研究新冠肺炎的双重传染动态和相关的行为反应，包括(但不限于)更多的卫生(例如洗手)、社交距离、社交聚会(有意抵制距离)、囤积物资，以及在回应官方威胁报告时发出警报或反抗的信号。调查人员将分三波纵向收集数据，从严重的非药物干预开始，如在预期的疫情过程中进行“封锁”。调查将评估降低风险的行为、对公共卫生要求的遵守情况，以及对各种机构、社会资本和新闻和信息来源的信任等假想的反应预测因素。为了补充经验数据收集，调查人员将开发和分析基于数学和模拟的模型，联合跟踪病毒传播和行为变化的动态。这些模型将根据调查中收集的数据进行参数化。将特别关注由关于严重性和不同类型的疾病传播干预措施的适当性的相互矛盾的信息所驱动的行为的后果。这个模型的一个重要目标是发展洞察力，以改善公共卫生干预，激励合规性，并确保公众获得关于病毒的有效和可访问的信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The current COVID-19 pandemic involves both tremendous risk and tremendous uncertainty about that risk, at unprecedented scales and across demographic and cultural contexts. How individuals interpret, understand, and respond to that risk have important implications for the transmission of the COVID-19 virus, SARS-CoV-2. This research leverages the ubiquity of SARS-CoV-2 amid varying community, regional, and national responses to test theories about the transmission of behavioral norms, linking individual characteristics (identities, homophily, transmission biases such as conformity or prestige risk management, and demographics), sources of information about the virus, and effects on transmission. Coupled contagion modeling has tended to be limited to demonstration of concept. The incorporation of real time behavioral response data in the modeling of couple contagion improves prospects for improved epidemic control through the promotion of pro-social behavior. This project will train students from under-represented minorities and a post-doctoral scholar in epidemiology. Results will be made immediately available to the public and will inform development of educational material. This project will study the coupled contagion dynamics of COVID-19 and related behavioral responses, including (but not limited to) increased hygiene (e.g., hand-washing), social distancing, social gathering (purposeful resistance to distancing), hoarding of supplies, and signaling of either alarm or defiance in response to official reports of threat. Investigators will collect data longitudinally in three waves starting from severe non-pharmaceutical interventions such as "lockdowns" through the expected course of the epidemic. Surveys will assess risk-reduction behaviors, compliance with public-health mandates, and hypothesized predictors of response including trust in various institutions, social capital, and sources of news and information. To complement the empirical data collection, the investigators will develop and analyze mathematical and simulation-based models that jointly track the dynamics of virus transmission and behavior change. The models will be parameterized with data collected in the survey. Particular focus will be given to the consequences of behaviors driven by conflicting messages about seriousness and the appropriateness of different types of interventions for disease transmission. An important goal of this modeling is to develop insights for improving public-health interventions, motivating compliance, and ensuring that effective and accessible information about the virus is available to the public.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.