Dissertation Research: Computational Modeling of War Expansion

论文研究：战争扩张的计算模型

• 批准号: 0648771
• 负责人: D. Scott Bennett
• 金额: $ 0.84万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-03-15 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0648771&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dissertation; Research; Computational; Modeling; War

This project examines the expansion of war; specifically, the spread of ongoing interstate wars to include states (i.e., third parties) beyond the original participants. The project builds around a theory of war expansion that is developed using computer simulations and then tested empirically using statistical analysis of actual wars. The research begins by using agent-based modeling -- a method that consists of computer simulations performed in an artificial international system -- to examine how multiple interacting "agents" (i.e., states) behave under different war scenarios. The outcomes of these simulations reveal emergent behavioral patterns of war expansion in the virtual environment: the precise conditions under which third parties will and will not decide to join an ongoing war, and the effects that third party participation will have on the dynamics of the war itself. These emergent patterns, in turn, serve as theoretical predictions of the real-life behavioral patterns that should emerge in the world under parallel conditions. After developing theoretical predictions based on simulations of the agent-based model, these predictions are tested empirically through statistical analysis of a new data set of military interventions in interstate wars between 1816 and 1997.The main contributions of the project are the theoretical and methodological advances that it affords. In addition to advancing understanding of why third parties join ongoing interstate wars, the theory of joining behavior that results can be generalized and applied to research questions throughout the social and behavioral sciences. This project also makes a methodological contribution by demonstrating that agent-based modeling combined with statistical analysis can provide better leverage on a research question than either method used in isolation. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

这个项目研究了战争的扩大;具体来说，正在进行的国家间战争的蔓延，包括国家（即，第三，超越原始参与者。 该项目建立在战争扩张理论的基础上，该理论是使用计算机模拟开发的，然后使用实际战争的统计分析进行实证检验。 这项研究首先使用基于代理的建模--一种由在人工国际系统中进行的计算机模拟组成的方法--来研究多个相互作用的“代理”（即，国家）在不同的战争情景下行动。 这些模拟的结果揭示了虚拟环境中战争扩张的紧急行为模式：第三方决定加入或不加入正在进行的战争的确切条件，以及第三方参与对战争本身动态的影响。 反过来，这些涌现模式又可以作为现实生活中的行为模式的理论预测，这些行为模式应该在平行条件下出现在世界上。 在基于代理人模型的模拟基础上发展理论预测之后，通过对1816 - 1997年国家间战争中军事干预的新数据集的统计分析，对这些预测进行了实证检验。该项目的主要贡献是它提供的理论和方法上的进步。 除了推进理解为什么第三方加入正在进行的国家间战争，加入行为的理论，结果可以推广和应用到整个社会和行为科学的研究问题。 该项目还表明，基于代理的建模与统计分析相结合，可以提供更好的杠杆作用的研究问题，而不是孤立使用的方法，使方法的贡献。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立的研究生涯。