Dissertation Research: Computational Modeling of War Expansion

本项目审查战争的扩大；具体地说，正在进行的国家间战争的蔓延，将国家(即第三方)包括在最初的参与者之外。该项目建立在战争扩张理论的基础上，该理论是通过计算机模拟开发的，然后通过对实际战争的统计分析进行经验检验。这项研究首先使用基于代理的建模--一种由在人工国际系统中执行的计算机模拟组成的方法--来检查多个相互作用的“代理”(即，国家)在不同战争场景下的行为。这些模拟的结果揭示了虚拟环境中战争扩张的新兴行为模式：第三方将决定和不将决定加入正在进行的战争的确切条件，以及第三方参与将对战争本身的动态产生的影响。这些新出现的模式反过来又是对现实生活中的行为模式的理论预测，这些模式应该在平行条件下出现在世界上。在开发了基于代理模型的模拟的理论预测之后，通过对1816年至1997年间国家间战争中军事干预的新数据集的统计分析，这些预测得到了实证检验。该项目的主要贡献是它提供了理论和方法上的进步。除了促进对第三方为什么加入正在进行的州际战争的理解之外，将行为结果结合在一起的理论可以推广并应用于整个社会科学和行为科学的研究问题。该项目还作出了方法论上的贡献，证明了基于代理的建模与统计分析相结合，可以比单独使用的任何一种方法更好地利用研究问题。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

This project examines the expansion of war; specifically, the spread of ongoing interstate wars to include states (i.e., third parties) beyond the original participants. The project builds around a theory of war expansion that is developed using computer simulations and then tested empirically using statistical analysis of actual wars. The research begins by using agent-based modeling -- a method that consists of computer simulations performed in an artificial international system -- to examine how multiple interacting "agents" (i.e., states) behave under different war scenarios. The outcomes of these simulations reveal emergent behavioral patterns of war expansion in the virtual environment: the precise conditions under which third parties will and will not decide to join an ongoing war, and the effects that third party participation will have on the dynamics of the war itself. These emergent patterns, in turn, serve as theoretical predictions of the real-life behavioral patterns that should emerge in the world under parallel conditions. After developing theoretical predictions based on simulations of the agent-based model, these predictions are tested empirically through statistical analysis of a new data set of military interventions in interstate wars between 1816 and 1997.The main contributions of the project are the theoretical and methodological advances that it affords. In addition to advancing understanding of why third parties join ongoing interstate wars, the theory of joining behavior that results can be generalized and applied to research questions throughout the social and behavioral sciences. This project also makes a methodological contribution by demonstrating that agent-based modeling combined with statistical analysis can provide better leverage on a research question than either method used in isolation. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.