Comparative Theory Testing and Interstate Wars, 1816-1984

9601151班尼特：积累社会科学知识的关键之一是定期对理论进行相互检验，以确定一个新的理论何时取代了以前的理论。然而，尽管政治学有许多理论声称可以解释新奇的事实，但这些理论很少被系统地比较。在这个项目中，研究人员对国际冲突的主要理论进行了广泛和包容的比较统计检验。这一检验既适用于在国家之间发起军事化争端，也适用于将这些争端升级为战争。这种广泛的比较测试对于积累有关国际冲突的科学知识是有用的，也是必要的。研究人员将发现，来自多个层次的分析信息对于准确模拟冲突行为是必要的。研究人员使用一系列相对权力测试来表明哪些理论比其他理论解释了更多的国际冲突结果，这表明了经过测试的理论的相对重要性。***

9601151 Bennett One key to accumulating knowledge in the social sciences is the regular testing of theories against one another to determine when a new theory has superseded previous ones. However, while political science has numerous theories that claim to explain novel facts, these theories are rarely compared systematically. In this project the researchers perform a broad and inclusive comparative statistical test of the major theories of international conflict. The test is applied to both the initiation of militarized disputes between countries and the escalation of those disputes to war. Such a broad comparative test is useful and necessary for accumulating scientific knowledge about international conflict. The researchers will find that information from multiple levels of analysis is necessary to accurately model conflict behavior. The researchers use a series of relative power tests to show which theories account for more international conflict outcomes than others, suggesting the relative importance of tested theories. ***