Macroeconomic Approach to Housing Issues

解决住房问题的宏观经济方法

• 批准号: 0649374
• 负责人: Don Schlagenhauf
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-02-15 至 2009-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0649374&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Macroeconomic; Approach; Housing; Issues

With about 8 trillion dollars in mortgage debt, the housing market uses a sizeable fraction of the financial resources of the economy and dominates most financial portfolios. Recent housing price movements have impacted household portfolios thus generating important ramifications for the economy. The idea behind this grant is to take a new approach to study the role of housing in the economy so that we have a better understanding of the determinants of housing tenure and housing investment decisions, as well as the determinants of house price movements and their impact on financial markets. Increased understanding of these issues can result in improved design and implementation of public policies thereby giving this project a broader impact. The research requires the use of tools that allow for household heterogeneity. The discipline of this approach requires a model that allows individuals to adjust to events in a manner that is consistent with acting in their own self-interest. The model equilibrium generates important testable implications of our theories and allows welfare analysis to be conducted. The rising cost of housing has implications for entry into owner-occupied as well as rental housing. This means mortgage financing plays an important role for many households who want to enter the owner-occupied housing market. Households choose a mortgage contract from a menu of mortgage contracts. We plan to examine whether the various mortgage contracts allow housing goals to be achieved. An important question is whether the financial sector will provide products that allow first-time buyers to enter the housing market and stay in the housing market, avoiding foreclosure. A related issue is a careful analysis of mortgage refinancing. Our modeling approach will allow these issues to be examined and evaluated. The payoff should have implications for the design of public policy toward mortgage markets. Perhaps the most important questions involve recent house price movements. Much of our work thus attempts to understand price movements in the housing market. A better understanding of the supply side of housing, especially the construction of new housing, is a critical factor for understanding housing price movements. The richness of decisions incorporated into our model makes it a good laboratory for public-policy analysis. For instance, recent concern over housing affordability has lead to a number of policy suggestions. A voucher program has been suggested as a way to get lower income households into the housing market. Our approach allows us to examine the efficacy of various policies, including this one.

住房市场拥有约8万亿美元的抵押贷款债务，使用了经济中相当大一部分金融资源，并主导了大多数金融投资组合。最近的房价变动影响了家庭投资组合，从而对经济产生了重要影响。这项拨款背后的想法是采取一种新的方法来研究住房在经济中的作用，以便我们更好地了解住房使用权和住房投资决策的决定因素，以及房价变动的决定因素及其对金融市场的影响。加深对这些问题的了解可以改善公共政策的设计和实施，从而使本项目产生更广泛的影响。这项研究需要使用允许家庭异质性的工具。这种方法需要一个模型，允许个人以符合自身利益的方式适应事件。均衡模型对我们的理论产生了重要的可检验的含义，并允许进行福利分析。住房成本的上升对进入自有住房和租赁住房都有影响。这意味着抵押贷款融资对许多想要进入自有住房市场的家庭起着重要作用。家庭从抵押合同菜单中选择抵押合同。我们计划对各种抵押贷款合同是否允许实现住房目标进行研究。”一个重要的问题是，金融部门是否会提供产品，让首次购房者进入住房市场并留在住房市场，避免丧失抵押品赎回权。一个相关的问题是仔细分析抵押贷款再融资。我们的建模方法将允许检查和评估这些问题。这种回报应该会对针对抵押贷款市场的公共政策的设计产生影响。也许最重要的问题涉及最近的房价走势。因此，我们的大部分工作都试图理解房地产市场的价格走势。更好地了解住房的供给侧，特别是新建住房的建设，是理解房价走势的关键因素。纳入我们模型的决策的丰富性使其成为公共政策分析的良好实验室。例如，最近对住房负担能力的担忧导致了一些政策建议。有人建议推出代金券计划，作为让低收入家庭进入住房市场的一种方式。我们的方法使我们能够检查各种政策的效力，包括这项政策。