The Dynamics of Teleconnection Patterns and Their Relationship with the General Circulation

遥相关型的动力学及其与大气环流的关系低层大气的月变和年变表现为一组周期性的型，称为遥相关型。气候的季节性变化是由季节性联系决定的：热浪和寒潮;季节性干旱和洪水。 费尔德斯坦将研究设定这些模式结构并确定其随时间变化的行为的动力学机制。将讨论五个具体问题：1。什么动力学过程决定遥相关如何随时间变化？2.平流层是如何影响主导高纬度模式的，而高纬度模式又是如何组织整个热带外地区的天气的？3.遥相关模式代表不同的制度或连续的国家？4.纬向平均急流向极传播时具有周期性。这样的时间可以预测吗？如果是这样的话，对天气预报有什么影响？5.风暴如何导致北大西洋和北太平洋上空主要遥相关型的发展？这些问题将通过分析现有的大气数据集以及使用理想化数值模型进行的大量模拟来回答。模型模拟将包括地形和解析平流层的运行。研究的更广泛影响将是向社区提供广泛的模型模拟的输出。将培养一名研究生，并为本科荣誉学生提供研究机会。这些研究可能最终导致季节内预测的改进。

The dynamics of teleconnection patterns and their relationship with the general circulationThe month-to-month and year-to-year variability of the lower atmosphere appears in a set of recurrent patterns, denoted teleconnections. Teleconnections mediate the seasonal climate: heat and cold waves; seasonal droughts and periods of flooding. Feldstein will investigate the dynamical mechanisms that set the structures of these patterns and determine their behavior over time. Five specific questions will be addressed:1. What dynamical processes determine how teleconnections vary over time?2. How does the stratosphere influence the leading high-latitude patterns, which organize weather throughout the extratropics?3. Do teleconnection patterns represent distinct regimes or continua of states?4. The zonal-mean jet exhibits periods when it propagates poleward. Can such periods be predicted? If so, what are the implications for forecasting the weather?5. How do storms lead to the development of the leading teleconnection patterns over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans?These questions will be answered by analyzing existing atmospheric data sets together with an extensive set of simulations using an idealized numerical model. The model simulations will include runs with topography and with a resolved stratosphere.A broader impact of the research will be to make available, to the community, the output of the extensive set of model simulations. A graduate student will be trained, and research opportunities will be provided for undergraduate honors students. These studies may ultimately lead to improvements in intraseasonal prediction.