The Dynamics of Teleconnection Patterns and Their Relationship with the General Circulation

遥相关型的动态及其与一般环流的关系低层大气的月际和年际变化表现为一套重复出现的模式，称为遥相关型。遥相关调节季节性气候：热浪和寒潮；季节性干旱和洪水期。费尔德斯坦将研究设定这些模式结构的动力学机制，并确定它们随着时间的推移的行为。将讨论五个具体问题：1.什么动力过程决定了遥相关如何随时间变化？2.平流层如何影响主导的高纬度模式，这些模式组织了整个温带外的天气？3.遥相关模式代表了不同的制度或状态的连续性？4.纬向平均急流在向极地传播时呈现出周期。这样的时期是可以预测的吗？如果是这样的话，预报天气的意义是什么？5.风暴如何导致北大西洋和北太平洋主要遥相关模式的发展？这些问题将通过分析现有的大气数据集和使用理想化的数值模式进行广泛的模拟来回答。模型模拟将包括地形和平流层分辨率的运行。研究的更广泛影响将是向社区提供一套广泛的模型模拟的输出。将培养一名研究生，并为本科生荣誉学生提供研究机会。这些研究可能最终导致季节内预测的改进。

The dynamics of teleconnection patterns and their relationship with the general circulationThe month-to-month and year-to-year variability of the lower atmosphere appears in a set of recurrent patterns, denoted teleconnections. Teleconnections mediate the seasonal climate: heat and cold waves; seasonal droughts and periods of flooding. Feldstein will investigate the dynamical mechanisms that set the structures of these patterns and determine their behavior over time. Five specific questions will be addressed:1. What dynamical processes determine how teleconnections vary over time?2. How does the stratosphere influence the leading high-latitude patterns, which organize weather throughout the extratropics?3. Do teleconnection patterns represent distinct regimes or continua of states?4. The zonal-mean jet exhibits periods when it propagates poleward. Can such periods be predicted? If so, what are the implications for forecasting the weather?5. How do storms lead to the development of the leading teleconnection patterns over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans?These questions will be answered by analyzing existing atmospheric data sets together with an extensive set of simulations using an idealized numerical model. The model simulations will include runs with topography and with a resolved stratosphere.A broader impact of the research will be to make available, to the community, the output of the extensive set of model simulations. A graduate student will be trained, and research opportunities will be provided for undergraduate honors students. These studies may ultimately lead to improvements in intraseasonal prediction.