Teleconnections: Intraseasonal Dynamics and its Relationship to Interannual and Interdecadal Variability

遥相关：季节内动态及其与年际和年代际变异的关系

• 批准号: 1036858
• 负责人: Steven Feldstein
• 金额: $ 52.61万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-02-01 至 2015-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1036858&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Teleconnections; Intraseasonal; Dynamics; its; Relationship

This project studies the dynamics of the recurrent patterns of variability of the large-scale atmospheric cicrulation, including the Pacific/North American Pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes. These patterns, sometimes referred to as teleconnection patterns, have a large influence on weather and climate at the earth's surface and thus have a variety of important impacts. The work has three goals: (1) to investigate the basic dynamical processes associated with teleconnection patterns; (2) to to understand the implications of teleconnection patterns on the predictability of atmospheric flow on synoptic to intraseasonal timescales; and 3) to understand the implications of teleconnection patterns for interannual to decadal atmospheric variability. The method of Self Organizing Maps is used to identify the teleconnection patterns, and a combination of statistical techniques and idealized numerical models will be used to understand the underlying dynamics of the patterns.The work has relevance to society because the weather and climate fluctuations associated with teleconnection patterns are important for human activities and the natural world. The results of the work have the potential to improve medium- to long-range forecasting, and preliminary results are already in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. In addition, the work supports a graduate student, thereby providing support and training to the next generation of scientists.

本项目研究大尺度大气环流的重现型变化的动力学，包括太平洋/北美型、北大西洋涛动以及南北半球环型。这些模式有时被称为遥相关模式，对地球表面的天气和气候有很大的影响，因此产生了各种重要的影响。这项工作有三个目标：(1)调查与遥相关型有关的基本动力过程；(2)了解遥相关型对大气流动在天气尺度到季节内时间尺度上的可预测性的影响；以及(3)了解遥相关型对年际至年代际大气变率的影响。利用自组织映射的方法来识别遥相关模式，并结合统计技术和理想化的数值模型来理解这种模式的潜在动态。这项工作具有社会相关性，因为与遥相关模式相关的天气和气候波动对人类活动和自然界都很重要。这项工作的结果有可能改善中长期预报，初步结果已经在国家海洋和大气管理局的气候预测中心使用。此外，这项工作还支持一名研究生，从而为下一代科学家提供支持和培训。