Low-Frequency Zonally-Averaged Flow Variability Studied with Models and Observations

美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学史蒂文·费尔德斯坦ATM-9416701题：用模式和观测研究低频纬向平均气流变率拟议研究的主要目的是研究纬向平均气流对大气低频变率的作用。为了实现这一目标，正在采用审查真实观测、理想化的简单模型的输出和现实的复杂全球模型的综合方法。这种方法可以加深我们对大气低频变率的基本动力学的理解。与高纬向指数相和低纬向指数相的维持、开始和衰变有关的动力学机制的细节将被研究。研究区域遥相关型和阻塞及其与纬向指数的关系。还将调查海温在纬向指数年际变化中的作用。大气低频振荡与中长期预报密切相关。这项研究有可能改进预测模型，进而进行预测。

Abstract ATM-9416701 Feldstein, Steven Pennsylvania State University Title: Low-Frequency Zonally-Averaged Flow Variability Studied with Models and Observations The primary objective of the proposed research is to investigate the role of the zonally averaged flow on atmospheric low frequency variability. A combined approach of examining the real observations, the outputs of idealized simple models and realistic complex global models is being adopted to achieve this goal. This approach can enhance our understanding of the fundamental dynamics of low frequency variability of the atmosphere. Details of dynamical mechanisms associated with the maintenance, onset and decay of both high and low zonal index phases will be examined. Regional teleconnection patterns and blocking and their relationship with zonal index will be studied. The role of SST in the interannual variability of the zonal index will also be investigated. Low frequency oscillations of the atmosphere are intimately related to medium and extended range forecasting. This research has potential for improving forecast models and in turn forecasts.