Critical Junctures and the Survival of Dictatorships: Explaining the Stability of Autocratic Regimes

“第三次民主化浪潮”抛弃了相当多运转良好的独裁政体。在民主化的时代，威权主义如何能够生存下去？我们要解决文献中的三个缺陷：第一，大多数研究依赖于一维的类型学，侧重于专制统治的结构，而忽视了专制政权的具体再生产机制。其次，研究并列在不同的理论链上，我们试图通过历史制度主义的方法将结构和代理联系起来。第三，极少关注支持独裁政权的制度的产生和发展。我们希望把重点放在这些机构上，特别是考虑到独裁制度化的时间维度。我们确定了独裁统治稳定的三大支柱：合法性、拉拢和压制。我们假设，这些支柱的制度化和平衡是独裁稳定的原因。参考历史制度主义的关键概念关键时刻，我们提出，如果其他两个不再能够弥补剩余支柱中的危机，那么威胁政权的关键时刻就会发生。我们采用嵌套式研究设计，将大N定量分析与小N定性案例研究相结合。我们构建了一个从1972年到2009年的非民主政权的数据集。基于我们的三支柱模型，我们发展了一种建立在三支柱不同组合上的专制统治类型。然后，我们进行生存分析，估计这三个支柱对政权崩溃概率的影响。最后，我们对不符合我们的理论和统计模型的离群点案例进行了深入的案例研究。我们的目标是用质的研究来检验和改进我们的理论模型。

The ‘third wave of democratization’ left aside a considerable number of well-functioning autocracies. How has authoritarianism in an age of democratization been able to survive? We want to address three shortcomings in the literature: First, most of the studies rely on one-dimensional typologies, focusing on the structure of autocratic domination, but ignoring specific reproduction mechanisms of autocratic regimes. Second, studies juxtapose separate theoretical strands we seek to synthesize by linking structure and agency in an historical institutionalist approach. Third, little attention is paid to the genesis and development of institutions that bolster autocratic regimes. We want to focus on such institutions, specifically taking into account the time dimension of autocratic institutionalization. We identify three pillars of stability of autocratic rule: legitimacy, co-optation, and repression. We hypothesize that the institutionalization and balance of these pillars are responsible for autocratic stability. Referring to historical institutionalism’s key concept of critical juncture, we propose that regime-threatening critical junctures occur if the other two can no longer compensate a crisis in the remaining pillar. We apply a nested research design, combining large-N quantitative analysis with small-N qualitative case study. We construct a dataset of non-democratic regimes from 1972 to 2009. Based on our three-pillar model, we develop a typology of autocratic rule resting on different combinations of the three pillars. We then conduct a survival analysis, estimating the effect of the three pillars on the probability of regime breakdown. Finally, we conduct in-depth case studies of outlier cases that do not fit our theoretical and statistical models. The goal is to use qualitative studies to test and improve our theoretical model.