CNH: Collaborative Research: The Impact of Economic Globalization on Human Demography, Land Use, and Natural Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean

世界经济全球化正在影响人类和自然系统的方方面面。这些影响中有许多是积极的(如减贫)，但也有负面影响，特别是对自然系统的影响，因为不断增长和更加富裕的人口对自然资源的需求日益增加。此外，农村居民，特别是年轻人，正在迁移到区域城市中心或更发达的经济体(例如美国)，因为他们被更好的工作、教育和医疗服务的机会所吸引。人口因素(如快速城市化、国际移民、农村生育率和死亡率下降)和经济因素(如非农业产业扩张、农产品价格下降、移民汇款、大规模现代农业的出现以及全球对粮食和石油替代品需求的增加)的这些前所未有的变化预计将导致以下土地利用转变：1)本土生态系统向现代农业的广泛转变，特别是在地形起伏不大的地区(如南美洲干燥森林生态系统的大豆生产)；2)边缘农业和牧场的废弃，特别是在山区和偏远地区。允许生态系统恢复。为了验证这些预测，该项目将把拉丁美洲和加勒比18,000个城市的人口和社会经济数据与1980-2000年期间土地覆盖/土地利用变化的遥感分析结合起来。此外，该项目将通过在选定国家进行生态系统清查和家庭访谈，记录这些人口和土地利用变化如何影响自然生态系统和当地居民。这个项目将创建一个大型数据库，使我们能够对人类与自然系统之间的复杂相互作用进行建模。这项研究应该揭示新的概念，以促进社会对全球变化的社会经济和生物多样性后果的理解。主要贡献将是一个详细的数据库，其中整合了多个空间尺度上的人口、经济、土地利用和生态系统数据。这些信息将被用来创建大陆范围的土地利用变化模型，这些模型将被用来促进地方政府和非政府组织(NGO)进行区域到地方的规划。另一个重要的好处是培养年轻的跨学科科学家。环境问题是复杂的，即使当多学科小组聚集在一起时，这些团队的成功也取决于几个拥有跨学科经验的关键人员。该项目得到了2006财年自然与人类耦合系统动力学特别竞赛的一个奖项的支持。

The globalization of the world's economy is impacting all aspects of human and natural systems. Many of these impacts are positive (e.g. poverty reduction), but there are also negative effects, particularly for natural systems due to the increasing demand for natural resources of a growing and more affluent population. Furthermore, rural inhabitants, particularly young people, are migrating to regional urban centers or to more developed economies (e.g., the United States), because they are attracted by opportunities of better jobs, education, and health services. These unprecedented changes in both demographic factors (e.g., rapid urbanization, international migration, falling rural fertility and mortality) and economic factors (e.g. expansion of non-agricultural industries, decreasing price of agricultural produce, emigrant remittances, emergence of large-scale modern agriculture, and increasing global demand for food and petroleum alternatives) are predicted to lead to the following land-use transitions: 1 ) Extensive conversion of native ecosystems to modern agriculture, particularly in areas with little topographic relief (e.g. soybean production in South American dry forest ecosystems), and 2) Abandonment of marginal agricultural and grazing lands, particularly in mountainous and remote regions, permitting ecosystem recovery. To test these predictions, the project will combine demographic and socio-economic data from 18,000 municipalities throughout Latin America and Caribbean with remote sensing analyses of land-cover/land-use change for the period 1980-2000. In addition, the project will document how these demographic and land-use changes are affecting natural ecosystem and local inhabitants by conducting ecosystem inventories and household interviews in selected countries. This project will create a large database, which will allow us to model the complex interaction between and among human and natural systems. The study should reveal new concepts that will facilitate society's understanding of the socioeconomic and biodiversity consequences of global change. The major contribution will be a detailed database that integrates demographic, economic, land-use, and ecosystem data at multiple spatial scales. This information will be used to create continental-scale models of land-use change, and these models will be used to facilitate local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in regional to local planning. Another important benefit will be the development of young interdisciplinary scientists. Environmental problems are complex, and even when multidisciplinary groups are assembled, the success of these teams depends on a few key people that have cross-disciplinary experience. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY2006 special competition on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.