Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale Processes and Climate Impacts

该项目将评估气候变化对美国太平洋西北部的影响。影响这一地区反应的关键是复杂的地形和海岸几何形状。因此，PI集中于以比用于气候变化研究的当前全球气候模型捕捉到的更精细的空间分辨率发生的对中尺度过程的影响。将使用一个区域大气模式，从目前的大气分析和几个未来气候模式预测中缩小当前和未来气候的比例。该项目将研究气候变化对太平洋西北部地形和对流降水、海洋影响、雪和土壤水分反馈以及ENSO遥相关的影响。该项目通过评估区域自然资源(如水、渔业和森林)对气候变化和多变性的脆弱性产生了广泛的影响。该项目将为区域应用研究创造建模和计算能力。通过几次合作，区域模式的高分辨率成果将与气候影响研究的水文和空气质量应用相联系，并分发给当地自然资源和规划机构。该小组也是美国华盛顿地球系统科学中心气候影响小组的研究科学家，并通过这一联系与利益相关者社区建立了直接联系。将有两名研究生参与其中。

This project will assess the impact of climate change on the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Key to the responses in this region is the complex topography and coastal geometry. Thus, the PIs concentrate on the impacts on mesoscale processes occurring at much finer spatial resolution than is captured in current global climate models used for climate change studies. A regional atmospheric model will be used to downscale current and future climate from present day atmospheric analyses and several future climate model projections. The project will study the influence of climate change on orographic and convective precipitation, marine influences, snow and soil-moisture feedbacks, and ENSO teleconnections for the Pacific Northwest. The project has broad impacts through estimation of vulnerabilities of regional natural resources (e.g., water, fisheries, and forests) to climate change and variability. The project will create modeling and computational capabilities for regional applications research. Through several collaborations, high-resolution output from the regional model will be linked to hydrological and air-quality applications for climate impacts studies and distributed to local natural resource and planning agencies. The PI is also a research scientist in the Climate Impacts Group of the U. Washington Center for Science in the Earth System, and through this affiliation has direct interface to stakeholder communities. Two graduate students will be involved.