Migration and Transformation of Rural China

在过去的二十年里，中国大规模的、具有历史意义的农村向城市的人口流动吸引了学术界的关注。迄今为止，大多数研究工作主要致力于研究移民流动的模式以及移民在目的地的情况。虽然这种方法在研究中国人口流动的初始阶段是合理的，但现在是时候研究城乡人口流动如何促进中国农村的社会和经济转型了。这个问题至关重要，因为最近的回迁趋势和大量汇款的流动有可能促进农村发展，并在中国农村创造一种新的社会分层秩序。本研究将从几个方面考察迁移/回流对中国农村的影响。PI将研究返回移徙的模式和决定因素；检查汇款的决定因素和后果（移民寄回或由返回的移民带回）；并确定非农业就业和创业活动竞争中的赢家和输家。研究者不仅要考虑个人层面的特征（即人力资本、政治资本、移民经历和家庭组成），还要考虑移民派遣社区的特征。这项研究主要依靠两个数据来源：2000年中国人口普查和2002年中国农村住户调查。对于个体水平模型，PI将使用OLS（普通最小二乘）回归和逻辑回归技术。为了评估社区层面因素对回流移民、汇款、非农就业和创业活动的影响，我们使用了多层次建模技术。定量数据分析将辅以对一个移民派遣社区中选定的回返移民企业家的访谈。该项目有望在几个方面为学术文献做出贡献。首先，该项目将通过提供最系统的回迁/迁移及其对中国农村影响的实证知识，填补当前学术文献的主要空白。二是理论创新，将人口流动视为中国农村社会分层的重要因素。第三，该项目是第一次尝试在多层建模框架中模拟移民对发展的影响，使用可能是最重要的移民国家进行实证应用。第四，由于汇款在贫困地区减轻贫困方面的潜在作用，该项目对政策制定也有影响。最后，通过让研究生有机会参与该项目，在中国进行数据分析和实地考察，该项目有助于培养下一代国际人口学和比较社会学学者。

SES-0718083Zai LiangSUNY AlbanyChina's massive and history-making flow of rural to urban migration has captivated scholarly attention for the last two decades. So far most research efforts have been devoted mainly to the study of patterns of migration flows and how migrants fare in the places of destination. Although this approach is justifiable in the initial stage of studying China's migration flows, it is time to examine how rural-urban migration has contributed to social and economic transformations of rural China. The question is critically important because recent trend of return migration and flow of enormous amount of remittances have the potential to contribute to rural development and create a new order of social stratification in rural China.The research will examine the impact of migration/return migration on rural China in several aspects. The PI will study patterns and determinants of return migration; examine determinants and consequences of remittances (either sent back by migrants or brought back by return migrants; and determine winners and losers in the race to compete for non-farm employment and entrepreneurial activities. The investigator will consider not only individual level characteristics (i.e. human capital, political capital, migration experiences, and household composition) but also the characteristics of migrants-sending communities. The study relies primarily on two sources of data: the 2000 Chinese Population Census and the 2002 China Rural Household Survey. For individual level models, the PI will use OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and logistic regression techniques. To assess the impact of community level factors on return migration, remittances, non-farm employment, and entrepreneurial activities, we use multi-level modeling techniques. The quantitative data analysis will be complemented by interviews with selected return migrant entrepreneurs in one migrant-sending community. The project promises to contribute to the scholarly literature in several aspects. First, the project will fill a major gap in the current scholarly literature by providing the most systematic empirical knowledge on return migration/migration and its impact on rural China. Second, a theoretical innovation lies in the fact that the research considers migration as an important factor in social stratification in rural China. Third, the project is the first attempt to model the impact of migration on development in a multilevel modeling framework using perhaps the most important country of migration for empirical application. Fourth, the project also has implications for policy-making because of the potential role of remittances in poverty alleviation in the poor areas. Finally, by giving graduate students the opportunity to participate in this project, both for data analysis and fieldwork in China, the project helps train the next generation of scholars on international demography and comparative sociology.