Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Dynamics of Civil Wars

政治学博士论文研究：内战动力学

• 批准号: 0719821
• 负责人: Nicholas Sambanis
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2009-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0719821&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

What leads armed groups to continue fighting, even in the face of extensive attempts at negotiated settlements or imposed military solutions? The rich information available on the activities of armed groups contrasts with few systematic explanations of this behavior. Systematic models, in turn, often fail to account for the environment in which armed groups operate. This project proposes a new theory of civil war duration and termination that combines the systematic with in-depth knowledge of conflict. How actors benefit from opportunities that exist only during conflict explains duration and termination of conflict. During wartime, actors exploit opportunities unavailable to them under conditions of peace. Wars continue when, conditional on survival, actors remain able to exploit these unique opportunities. The theory suggests that policy-makers concentrate resources on activities that choke off the collateral benefits to conflict. The policy implications of this theory diverge from the predictions of the credible commitment view of war termination prevalent in the literature and policy circles. The theory of wartime opportunities will be investigated through field research on the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) using parallel qualitative and quantitative strategies: interviews with ex-combatants and civilians and compilation of a disaggregated database on the conflict. The multiple dimensions of warfare and political issues at play in Lebanon allow the project to examine in one conflict what researchers would have to explore in many separate conflicts. The research design also explicitly generalizes findings from the fieldwork by placing the Lebanese Civil War in context using cross-national data and other national studies and by an analysis of the conflict in Northern Ireland. This work fits into a larger research agenda that aims to generate and test a better theory of the dynamics of civil wars that can explain outcomes during conflict and their effects on the post-conflict situation. Current explanations of civil war termination in the literature are likely incorrect because of their heavy reliance on the assumption that an inability to credibly commit to a future settlement drives actors to continue fighting. By proposing an original theory of war termination which does not rely on credible commitment, this project changes how scholars in International Relations and Comparative Politics understand civil wars. The rigorous empirical test of the theory through fieldwork and comparative analysis will advance the field of study. The project's policy implications will also contribute to policy debates on civil war termination and post-conflict stability. The project's fieldwork involves substantial partnership with the academic community in Lebanon. Lebanese graduate and undergraduate students will be hired as research assistants (RAs) for the database and interview portions of the fieldwork. RAs will be trained and work closely with the co-principal investigator, integrating education and research. Publication of the project's results in Arabic will help to disseminate the findings and extend the research's impact beyond academic circles in the United States and Lebanon to Lebanese society, as will workshops and presentations in Lebanon in addition the U.S. The project's emphasis on the policy implications will provide substantial benefits to society. The goal is to improve the ability of policy-makers to limit the devastating effects of internal warfare and build post-conflict stability.

是什么原因导致武装团体继续战斗，即使面对通过谈判解决问题或强加军事解决办法的广泛尝试？关于武装团体活动的现有资料丰富，但对这种行为的系统解释却很少。而系统模式往往无法考虑到武装团体活动的环境。该项目提出了一个新的理论内战的持续时间和终止相结合的系统与深入的知识冲突。行为者如何从冲突期间才存在的机会中获益，解释了冲突的持续时间和结束。在战争期间，行为者利用和平条件下无法利用的机会。只要行为体能够以生存为条件利用这些独特的机会，战争就会继续下去。这一理论表明，决策者将资源集中在那些扼杀冲突附带利益的活动上。这一理论的政策含义与文献和政策界流行的可信承诺的战争终止观的预测不同。 战时机会的理论将通过对黎巴嫩内战（1975-1990年）的实地研究进行调查，采用平行的定性和定量策略：采访前战斗人员和平民，并汇编关于冲突的分类数据库。 黎巴嫩战争和政治问题的多个层面使该项目能够在一场冲突中研究研究人员在许多单独的冲突中必须探索的问题。 研究设计还明确概括了实地调查的结果，将黎巴嫩内战的背景下使用跨国数据和其他国家的研究，并在北方爱尔兰的冲突分析。这项工作符合一个更大的研究议程，旨在产生和测试一个更好的理论，内战的动态，可以解释冲突期间的结果及其对冲突后局势的影响。 目前文献中对内战结束的解释可能是不正确的，因为它们严重依赖于这样一种假设，即无法对未来的解决方案作出合理的承诺会促使行为体继续战斗。 通过提出一种不依赖于可信承诺的战争终止理论，该项目改变了国际关系和比较政治学学者对内战的理解。通过实地考察和比较分析，对这一理论进行严格的实证检验，将推动这一研究领域的发展。 该项目的政策影响也将有助于关于结束内战和冲突后稳定的政策辩论。 该项目的实地工作涉及与黎巴嫩学术界的实质性伙伴关系。黎巴嫩研究生和本科生将被聘为研究助理（RA）的数据库和实地考察的采访部分。RA将接受培训，并与共同主要研究者密切合作，将教育和研究结合起来。以阿拉伯文出版该项目的结果将有助于传播研究结果，并将研究的影响从美国和黎巴嫩的学术界扩大到黎巴嫩社会，除了美国之外，在黎巴嫩举办的讲习班和演讲也将如此。其目标是提高决策者的能力，以限制内战的破坏性影响，并建立冲突后的稳定。