RAPID: Violence and the Persistence of Ethnic Indentification

种族暴力是否会产生持续数十年的影响？包括被迫流离失所者在内的暴力受害者是否更有可能参与政治，他们是否更有可能对外部群体持负面态度？冲突的再次发生是否更有可能在过去经历过暴力的人中引发负面反应？我们建议在塞浦路斯的“冻结”冲突中研究这些问题，40多年前的种族暴力造成了该岛事实上的分裂。我们在2016年夏天进行的研究的基础上，探讨在最近终止（失败）的和平进程的背景下暴力暴露的后果。通过第二轮具有全国代表性的调查，我们可以衡量由于最近国际调解的建立和平进程失败而产生的态度变化。我们的调查包括希族塞人的暴力经历、社会背景、社会和政治价值观、对不同族裔群体的看法和态度、对塞浦路斯统一的看法以及参与公民和政治生活的情况，在统一谈判失败后，我们处于独特的地位，对希族塞人进行第二轮（小组）调查。我们的研究将是第一次对希族塞人对彼此和对土族塞人的态度的决定因素进行社会科学分析，测试关于和平谈判的失败和1974年的暴力如何影响他们的政治观点和他们支持统一的倾向的假设。结合先前收集的数据，这些数据可以帮助我们更好地了解社会偏好如何对种族对立做出反应。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Does exposure to ethnic violence generate effects that persist for decades? Are victims of violence, including forcibly displaced persons, more or less likely to participate in politics and are they more likely to hold negative attitudes toward out-groups? Are recurrences of conflict more likely to trigger negative reactions among people who have experienced violence in the past? We propose to study these questions in a "frozen" conflict in Cyprus, where ethnic violence more than 40 years ago created a de facto partition of the island. We build on research conducted during the summer of 2016 to explore consequences of violence exposure in the context of a recently terminated (failed) peace process. Via a second wave of a nationally-representative survey, we can measure changes in attitudes as a function of the recent failure of an internationally-mediated peacemaking process. Our survey covers Greek Cypriots' experiences with violence, social backgrounds, social and political values, perceptions of and attitudes toward different ethnic groups, opinions on the reunification of Cyprus, and participation in civic and political life.In the aftermath of the failure of reunification talks, we are in the unique position to do a second round (panel) survey of Greek Cypriots. Our study will be the first social-scientific analysis of determinants of Greek Cypriot attitudes toward each other andtoward Turkish Cypriots, testing hypotheses about how the failure of peace talks and the violence of 1974 affect their political views and their proclivity to support reunification. Combined with the data previously collected, these data could help us to better understand how social preferences respond to ethnic antagonism.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.