Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: A Third Term? An Analysis of the Degree to Which Formal Democratic Institutions Constrain Leaders in Sub-Saharan Africa

在过去十年中，在非洲民主国家中出现了一种趋势，许多总统试图修改国家宪法，以废除行政任期限制。一些总统成功地取消了任期限制；一些总统失败了；还有一些总统在两届任期后自愿下台，但没有尝试这样的宪法修改。是什么原因导致一些领导人试图第三次连任，而另一些领导人则满足于在宪法授权的两届任期结束后放弃权力？更进一步，在领导人决定推动任期限制修正案的情况下，这些竞标的成功或失败是如何解释的？该项目的目的是回答这些问题，并通过审查非洲各地任期限制法律的可塑性如何影响非洲大陆巩固民主的前景，进一步作出解释。了解正式民主机构在多大程度上限制领导人实现个人偏好，以及总统如何利用先前的非正式机构，如赞助网络，在政治制度中获得优势，有助于回答正式民主机构在非洲的影响力如何和影响程度这一重要问题。该项目的第一阶段调查个别领导人如何作出决定，要么在两届任期后下台，要么通过发起宪法修正案争取第三个任期。这是通过以选择为中心的分析来进行的，该分析建立了一个理论决策演算，然后通过采访前总统及其亲密伙伴(如内阁成员和部委负责人)进行测试和验证。该项目的第二阶段旨在揭示为什么在决定寻求第三个任期后，一些总统成功地通过了一项修正案，而另一些总统失败了。在这一阶段，回归分析和定性比较分析(QCA)都被用来揭示撒哈拉以南非洲案例中的相关变量，然后是乌干达、坦桑尼亚和赞比亚三个国家的国内案例研究，以确定期限限制延长投标结果背后的因果机制。每个案例研究的数据将通过半结构化的个人访谈、焦点小组访谈、机构分析、档案研究和民意数据分析来收集。这项研究的一个更广泛的影响是，为政策制定者提供了理解总统何时以及如何克服法律对其权力设定的限制的手段，这在非洲以及其他地区至关重要，因为大人物的痛苦历史？统治整个大陆。乌干达的伊迪·阿明、扎伊尔的蒙博托·塞塞·塞科和利比里亚的查尔斯·泰勒等独裁者过去的残暴政权在许多非洲人的记忆中历历在目。揭露允许领导人炫耀其权力限制的条件(包括政治和社会条件)，是促进民主能够在这些国家继续存在的第一步。

Over the past ten years a trend has emerged among African democracies whereby many presidents have attempted to amend national constitutions for the purpose of abolishing executive term limits. Some presidents have been successful in their bids to lift term limits; some have failed; while still other presidents have willingly stepped down after their two terms in office without attempting such a constitutional change. What causes some leaders to try for a third term while others are content to relinquish power once their constitutionally mandated two terms are up? Going a step further, among cases where the leader has decided to push for a term limit amendment, what accounts for the success or failure of those bids? The aim of this project is to answer these questions and to take the explanations a step further by examining how the plasticity of term limit laws across Africa affects the prospects of democratic consolidation on the continent. Understanding the degree to which leaders are constrained from achieving their personal preferences by formal democratic institutions and how presidents can utilize prior informal institutions, such as patronage networks, to gain advantages within the political system can help answer the important question of how and the degree to which formal democratic institutions are influential in Africa. The first stage of this project investigates how individual leaders make the decision to either step down after two terms in office or try for a third term by sponsoring a constitutional amendment. This is carried out through a choice-centered analysis that builds a theoretical decision calculus that is then tested and verified through interviews with former presidents and their close associates, such as cabinet members and ministry heads. The second stage of the project seeks to uncover the reasons why, after a decision is made to seek a third term, some presidents succeed in getting an amendment passed while others fail. In this stage, both regression analysis and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are used to uncover the relevant variables across cases in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by in-country case studies of three nations, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia, in order to identify the causal mechanisms that underlie term limit extension bid outcomes. Data for each case study will be gathered through semi-structured personal interviews, focus group interviews, institutional analysis, archival research, and public opinion data analysis. A broader impact of this study is providing policymakers with the means for understanding when and how presidents can overcome legally set limits to their power, which is crucial in Africa, as well as other regions, because of the painful history of ?big man? rule across the continent. The brutal past regimes of dictators such as Idi Amin in Uganda, Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), and Charles Taylor in Liberia are all too vivid in the memories of many Africans. Uncovering the conditions (both political and social) that allow leaders to flaunt limits to their power is a first step in fostering the conditions in which democracy can survive in these nations.