Collaborative Research: Purchasing & Inventory Management in Disrupted Supply Chains: The Reverse Bullwhip Effect

该项目假定存在反向牛鞭效应(RBWE)，即需求(订单)的变异性随着供应链向下游移动而增加。(经典的牛鞭效应描述了相反的现象。)RBWE是由供应不确定性造成的，因为供应信号在向下游传播时会扭曲。它可能与BWE共存，导致供应链中间的变异性最大。本项目研究了水污染的成因，研究了缓解水污染的策略，并探讨了水污染与水污染之间的关系。第一个组成部分将建立理论和模拟模型，以确定RBWE发生的条件、其对成本的影响以及减轻它的策略。一项基于著名的“啤酒游戏”的行为研究将测试玩家在供应中断时的订购行为。第二个部分将建立模型，描述在需求和价格相互依赖的情况下短缺情况下的购买行为。它将审查中断特征对RBWE的影响，以及定价作为缓解这种影响的战略的有效性。这项研究将使人们能够更清楚地了解供应链在供应不确定时期的订货模式，并提供一套工具来减少这两种类型的牛鞭效应及其对供应链及其客户的负面影响。在人道主义危机和自然和人为灾难期间，RBWE可能最明显，加深对RBWE的了解以及缓解它的技术，可能对于满足对紧急物资、食品、能源和救援服务的需求至关重要。在这项研究中开发的模型还将被纳入由其中一名PI编写的供应链模拟软件包；该软件和“啤酒游戏”软件将免费传播用于研究和教育目的。

This project postulates the existence of a reverse bullwhip effect (RBWE) in which demand (order) variability increases as one moves downstream in a supply chain. (The classical bullwhip effect (BWE) describes the opposite phenomenon.) The RBWE is caused by supply uncertainty, as supply signals are distorted as they travel downstream. It may co-exist with the BWE, causing variability to be largest in the middle of the supply chain. This project examines the causes of the RBWE, studies strategies for mitigating it, and explores the relationship between the RBWE and the BWE. The first component will build theoretical and simulation models to determine the conditions under which the RBWE occurs, its effect on costs, and strategies for mitigating it. A behavioral study, based on the well known "beer game," will test players' ordering behaviors during supply disruptions. The second component will formulate models that describe purchasing behavior in a shortage situation when demand and price are interdependent. It will examine the impact of disruption characteristics on the RBWE and the effectiveness of pricing as a strategy for mitigating it. This research will enable a clearer understanding of ordering patterns in a supply chain during periods of supply uncertainty and provide a set of tools for reducing both types of bullwhip effects and their negative impacts on both supply chains and their customers. The RBWE is likely to be most pronounced during humanitarian crises and natural and man-made disasters, and a deeper understanding of the RBWE, and techniques for mitigating it, may be critical for meeting demand for emergency supplies, food, energy, and relief services. The models developed in this research will also be incorporated into a supply chain simulation software package written by one of the PIs; that software and the "beer game" software will be freely disseminated for research and educational purposes.