Doctoral Dissertation Research: Mitigating Inter- and Intra-Community Geospatially Dependent Vulnerability Through the Enhancement of Network Resilience: A Case Study of Sarasota

据估计，墨西哥湾沿岸的风暴潮高达28英尺，卡特里娜飓风证明了风暴潮可能对沿海社区造成的破坏，因为这些社区没有为如此规模的自然事件做好准备。随着人们向沿海地区迁移的趋势继续，卡特里娜飓风重演的可能性增加。海平面上升大大提高了沿海社区的脆弱性，因为它增加了风暴潮洪水的范围，使以前被认为是安全的部分社区暴露在危险之中。除了海平面上升带来的威胁外，近岸人口的持续增长和经济发展增加了灾害多发地区的建筑物和社区资产的数量，从而产生了新的风险。这一博士论文研究项目将考察人们对风暴潮物理风险的理解如何支持解释海平面上升、人口增长和发展的长期规划，从而帮助沿海社区更好地应对未来的风暴潮。这位博士生将特别关注风暴潮可能如何扰乱基础设施和关键设施网络的运行，以及规划如何减少这种干扰。学生将通过结合风暴潮模型、脆弱性评估和基于团队的决策支持方法来完成他的工作。决策支持方法将在很大程度上依赖焦点小组将对飓风风暴潮、气候变化、脆弱性、人口增长和发展的科学和非专家理解结合到沿海社区的长期规划中。该项目将包括关于佛罗里达州萨拉索塔县沿海社区对当代和气候变化增强的飓风风暴潮灾害的物理脆弱性的案例研究。该研究项目的独特之处在于，传统的脆弱性评估没有考虑到地理关系如何影响一个地区或社区的脆弱性。例如，一个没有医院的社区可能需要依赖附近城镇的设施来满足其医疗保健需求。如果连接两个社区的唯一道路上的一座桥变得无法通行，那么没有医院的市政当局的脆弱性就会增加。脆弱性评估也未能将传统基础设施与关键设施结合起来，从而未能对基础设施网络进行研究。因此，该项目很重要，因为它提供了一个过程，使沿海社区官员、规划者和居民能够改进和扩大他们对远程基础设施、关键设施和整体发展规划的脆弱性信息的使用，从而创建更可持续、更具抗灾能力的社区。这项研究将提高社会规划和应对未来气候变化造成的自然灾害和破坏的能力。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

With an estimated storm surge of 28 feet along the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the devastation that a surge could wreak on coastal communities, because those communities are not prepared for natural events of this magnitude. As the trend of people migrating to coastal locations continues, the potential for a repeat of the Katrina catastrophe increases. Sea-level rise enhances the vulnerability of coastal communities significantly by increasing the extent of storm-surge flooding and exposing parts of communities previously thought to be safe. In addition to the threat brought by sea-level rise, continued near-shore population growth and economic development increases the number of buildings and community assets in hazard-prone areas, thereby creating new risks. This doctoral dissertation research project will examine how people's understanding of the physical risks from storm surge supports long-range planning that accounts for sea-level rise, population growth, and development, thereby helping to make coastal communities more resilient to future storm surges. The doctoral candidate will pay special attention to how storm surges might disrupt the functioning of networks of infrastructure and critical facilities and how planning might lessen such disruptions. The student will accomplish his work by combining storm surge models, vulnerability assessments, and team-based decision-support methods. The decision-support methods will rely heavily on focus groups to combine scientific and non-expert understandings of hurricane storm surge, climate change, vulnerability, population growth, and development into long-range planning for coastal communities. The project will consist of a case study on the physical vulnerabilities of coastal communities to contemporary and climate change-enhanced hurricane storm surge hazards in Sarasota County, Florida.This research project is distinctive because traditional vulnerability assessments have not considered how geographic relationships influence a region's or a community's vulnerability. For example, a community without a hospital may depend on a facility in a nearby town for its health care needs. If a bridge on the only road connecting the two communities becomes impassable, then the vulnerability of the municipality without a hospital increases. Vulnerability assessments have also fallen short in their study of infrastructure networks by failing to combine traditional infrastructure with critical facilities. The project therefore is important because it provides a process that will allow coastal community officials, planners, and residents to improve and expand their use of vulnerability information for long-range infrastructure, critical facility, and overall development planning, thereby creating more sustainable, hazard-resistant communities. This research will enhance society's ability to plan for and respond to natural hazards and disruptions posed by climate change in the future. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.