Collaborative Research: DRU--Warning Decisions in Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach

在天气紧急情况下，适当的信息传播和合理的决策对于拯救生命、减少伤害和保护财产至关重要。一些政府和非政府组织高度重视改善极端天气事件预警系统的研究。该项目通过发展对预警系统和流程的综合了解来满足这些需求，重点关注佛罗里达州迈阿密的飓风和科罗拉多州博尔德市的山洪暴发。该项目将(1)探讨不确定性在整个预警过程中的作用，包括信息分发和决策；(2)加深对科学信息如何通过预警网络进行分析并通过预警网络传递给不同用户的理解；(3)确定在极端天气事件期间影响组织(如媒体)和政府决策的因素；(4)确定公众对不同属性的预报和预警信息的偏好。该项目使用多学科方法来了解天气警报系统、系统组件及其相互作用。该项目整合了气象学、社会学、经济学、决策学和公共政策分析的信息和研究方法，将对极端天气事件的决策、风险和不确定性产生新的理解。更具体地说，该项目将分析极端天气警告如何在决策中进行沟通、获取、解释和使用，以及利益相关者对合理决策所需的警告特征的看法。该项目将有助于改进极端事件天气警告，并可能减少相关的伤亡和财产损失。

Appropriate information distribution and sound decision making during weather emergencies are critical to saving lives, reducing injuries and protecting property. Several governmental and non-governmental organizations have placed a high priority on research to improve warning systems for extreme weather events. This project addresses these needs by developing an integrated understanding of warning systems and processes, with a focus on hurricanes in Miami, Florida and flash floods in Boulder, Colorado. The project will (1) address the role of uncertainty throughout the warning process, including information distribution and decision making; (2) develop an understanding of how scientific information is analyzed and transmitted through warning networks to diverse users; (3) identify the factors influencing organizational (e.g., media) and governmental decision making during extreme weather events; and (4) characterize public preferences for different attributes of forecast and warning information. The project uses a multidisciplinary approach to understanding weather warning systems, system components, and their interactions. Integrating information and research methods from meteorology, sociology, economics, decision science, and public policy analysis, the project will generate new understanding about decision making, risk, and uncertainty regarding extreme weather events. More specifically, the project will analyze how extreme weather warnings are communicated, obtained, interpreted, and used in decision making, as well as stakeholder perceptions of warning characteristics needed for sound decision making. The project will help improve extreme event weather warnings and potentially reduce related injuries, deaths, and property loss.