Collaborative Research: DRU--Warning Decisions in Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach

在天气紧急情况下，适当的信息传播和合理的决策对于拯救生命、减少伤害和保护财产至关重要。 一些政府组织和非政府组织高度重视改进极端天气事件预警系统的研究。 该项目通过对预警系统和过程的综合了解来满足这些需求，重点是佛罗里达迈阿密的飓风和科罗拉多博尔德的山洪暴发。 该项目将（1）探讨不确定性在整个警报过程中的作用，包括信息分发和决策;（2）了解如何分析科学信息并通过警报网络向不同用户传送;（3）确定影响组织信息的因素（例如，媒体）和政府决策过程中的极端天气事件;（4）表征公众偏好的不同属性的预报和预警信息。 该项目采用多学科方法来了解天气警报系统，系统组件及其相互作用。 该项目整合了气象学、社会学、经济学、决策科学和公共政策分析的信息和研究方法，将对极端天气事件的决策、风险和不确定性产生新的理解。 更具体地说，该项目将分析如何在决策中传达、获取、解释和使用极端天气警报，以及利益相关者对合理决策所需的警报特征的看法。 该项目将有助于改善极端事件天气警报，并可能减少相关的伤害，死亡和财产损失。

Appropriate information distribution and sound decision making during weather emergencies are critical to saving lives, reducing injuries and protecting property. Several governmental and non-governmental organizations have placed a high priority on research to improve warning systems for extreme weather events. This project addresses these needs by developing an integrated understanding of warning systems and processes, with a focus on hurricanes in Miami, Florida and flash floods in Boulder, Colorado. The project will (1) address the role of uncertainty throughout the warning process, including information distribution and decision making; (2) develop an understanding of how scientific information is analyzed and transmitted through warning networks to diverse users; (3) identify the factors influencing organizational (e.g., media) and governmental decision making during extreme weather events; and (4) characterize public preferences for different attributes of forecast and warning information. The project uses a multidisciplinary approach to understanding weather warning systems, system components, and their interactions. Integrating information and research methods from meteorology, sociology, economics, decision science, and public policy analysis, the project will generate new understanding about decision making, risk, and uncertainty regarding extreme weather events. More specifically, the project will analyze how extreme weather warnings are communicated, obtained, interpreted, and used in decision making, as well as stakeholder perceptions of warning characteristics needed for sound decision making. The project will help improve extreme event weather warnings and potentially reduce related injuries, deaths, and property loss.