Collaborative Research: Downscaling global climate projections to the ecosystems of the Bering Sea with nested biophysical models

合作研究：利用嵌套生物物理模型将全球气候预测缩小到白令海生态系统

• 批准号: 0732534
• 负责人: Nicholas Bond
• 金额: $ 80.29万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0732534&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Downscaling; global; climate

Funds are provided to model the physics and ecosystem structure of the Bering Sea. Change in climate forcing will be determined from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) simulations made for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The twentieth century hindcasts from these models differ in terms of their ability to replicate past observed conditions; a subset of the better models will be used to project the trends, variability and uncertainty of the climate of the Bering Sea through the first half of the 21st century. This ensemble of GCM model results will be used primarily for dynamical downscaling, i.e., as initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution ocean model experiments with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The ROMS simulations are designed to properly handle physical processes known to be important on the Bering Sea shelf, such as sea ice, tides, and cross-shelf exchange; these results will form the direct input for embedded spatially-explicit nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) and food web model experiments. This project is part of a larger program designed to develop understanding of the integrated ecosystem of the eastern Bering Sea shelf, a highly productive region of US coastal waters. This ecosystem is home to a major portion of the commercial fisheries of the US and also provides significant resources to subsistence hunters and fisherman of Alaska. The model will help to synthesize our current and developing understanding of how this system functions.

为模拟白令海的物理和生态系统结构提供了资金。气候强迫的变化将由为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR4）所做的大气-海洋环流模式（GCM）耦合模拟来确定。这些模式的20世纪预测在复制过去观测条件的能力方面有所不同；较好的模式子集将用于预测21世纪上半叶白令海气候的趋势、可变性和不确定性。GCM模式结果集合将主要用于动力降尺度，即作为区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS）高分辨率海洋模式实验的初始条件和边界条件。ROMS模拟旨在正确处理已知在白令海大陆架上重要的物理过程，例如海冰，潮汐和跨大陆架交换；这些结果将成为嵌入式空间显式营养-浮游植物-浮游动物（NPZ）和食物网模型实验的直接输入。该项目是一个更大项目的一部分，旨在了解白令海东部陆架的综合生态系统，这是美国沿海水域的一个高产地区。这个生态系统是美国大部分商业渔业的家园，也为阿拉斯加的自给猎人和渔民提供了重要的资源。这个模型将有助于综合我们目前和正在发展的对这个系统如何运作的理解。