MOD: Modeling the Dynamics of Technological Evolution

本研究的目的是开发一个基于经验的，定量模型的动态技术演进。这个模型的目的是解释技术在动态网络中是如何相互关联的，以及为什么某些技术比其他技术改进得更快。该项目的重点是研究基于基础科学进步的渐进式改进和激进的新发现。本课题由经济学家、工程师、物理学家、生物学家、社会学家等多学科组成的研究小组，从不同的角度进行研究。课题的主要内容是模型构建，同时利用研究人员在复杂系统分析方面的经验，开发了多种工具。这些工具包括制定技术性能预测的最佳做法准则。关于投资组合理论的工作，特别是在设计能源部门收益递增的投资组合方面的工作，也应该为投资低碳能源技术的公共和私营部门提供一个有用的决策工具。本研究由实证部分、理论与模型建构、模拟部分组成。在本项目的实证部分，构建和分析了几个大型数据集。该项目从测试赖特定律开始，该定律指出，制造给定技术的成本随着生产单位的累积数量而呈幂律下降。其他性能曲线进行了探讨，包括取代成本与其他措施的性能，并取代累计单位数与其他措施的患病率。该研究通过将专利和科学文献数据与性能曲线相关联，重点关注激进的新发现和渐进式改进。实证工作包括对尽可能多的技术进行广泛的研究，以及对技术进行一些深入的研究，其中对影响技术改进的所有因素有更详细的看法。这些详细的案例研究主要涉及能源技术，这是一个具有社会意义的领域。理论部分改进了现有的技术演进模型。 操作假设是，技术必须作为相关实体生态的一部分进行研究，包括所有内部组件技术和影响这些组件的所有外部技术。这里的重点是为这些网络效应建立更真实的模型。与生物学创新和选择的作用的连接进行了探索。模拟部分包括技术创新的玩具模型的建设和投资组合理论中的相关开放问题的研究。赖特定律意味着收益递增，因此，早期开发的技术积累了比后来开发的技术更大的优势。当技术遵循赖特定律时，什么是最佳投资方法？在这种情况下，投资组合问题定义了一个高度非线性的随机动态系统，其属性远不明显。案例研究的重点是低碳能源部门。了解公共研发投资的可能结果以及市场转型计划对技术创新的影响对于有效制定公共政策至关重要。这里的重点是与能源有关的政策，特别是对创造低碳能源技术的公共投资问题。这项工作的成果将通过《伦敦雅阁》项目与国际私人投资界和公共政策界分享。 研究结果也将与来自不同机构的学生分享。

The aim of this study is to develop an empirically based, quantitative model of the dynamics of technological evolution. The goal of this model is to explain how technologies are related in a dynamical network and why certain technologies improve faster than others. The project focuses on examining both incremental improvements and radical new discoveries that are based on fundamental scientific advances. This problem is approached from diverse points of view, with an interdisciplinary team including economists, engineers, physicists, biologists, and a sociologist.While model construction is the main focus of this project, several tools are developed in the process, taking advantage of the researchers' experience in complex systems analysis. These tools include developing best-practice guidelines for making technological performance forecasts. Work on portfolio theory, and specifically in designing portfolios under increasing returns in the energy sector, should also provide a useful decision-making tool for public and private actors investing in low carbon energy technologies. This study consists of an empirical component, theory and model construction, and a simulation component. In the empirical component of this project several large data sets are constructed and analyzed. The project begins with testing of Wright's law, which states that the cost of manufacturing a given technology decreases as a power law when plotted against the cumulative number of units produced. Alternative performance curves are explored, including replacing cost with other measures of performance, and replacing cumulative number of units with other measures of prevalence. The study focuses on both radical new discoveries and incremental improvements, by relating patent and scientific literature data to performance curves. The empirical work includes broad studies of as many technologies as possible, as well as a few in-depth studies of technologies where there is a more detailed view of all the factors that influence technological improvement. These detailed case studies largely deal with energy technologies, an area with societal relevance. The theoretical component improves on existing models of technological evolution. The operating assumption is that technologies must be studied as part of an ecology of related entities, including all internal component technologies and all external technologies that influence these components. The focus here is on making more realistic models of these network effects. Connections to innovation in biology and the role of selection are explored.The simulation component consists of the construction of toy models of technological innovation and a study related open problems in portfolio theory. Wright's Law implies increasing returns, so consequently technologies that are developed early accumulate an advantage over technologies that are developed later. What is the optimal approach to investing when technologies follow Wright's Law? In this context, the portfolio problem defines a highly nonlinear stochastic dynamical system whose properties are far from obvious. The case studies focus on the low-carbon energy sector.Understanding the likely outcomes of public investments in research and development and of the influence of market transformation programs on technological innovation is critical for effective public policy formulation. The focus here is on energy related policy, and in particular on the problem of public investments to create low-carbon energy technologies. The results of this work will be shared with the international private investment and public policy communities through the London Accord project. The results will also be shared with students from a variety of institutions.