DISES: Co-produced modeling of socio-environmental dynamics of financialized forestlands and alternative future scenarios

DISES：共同制作的金融化林地社会环境动态模型和替代未来情景

• 批准号: 2205705
• 负责人: Jesse Abrams
• 金额: $ 152.21万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2205705&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DISES; Co; produced; modeling; socio

This research addresses the past socio-environmental dynamics and future trajectories of forests in northern Maine. Timberlands in northern Maine were owned by integrated forest products companies for much of the twentieth century, but more recently their ownership has changed as a result of the emergence of new corporate timberland organizations, principally Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs). This ownership change comes at the same time that forests are being included as carbon solutions in state-level climate policies. The researchers on this project will work directly with Maine’s policymakers, tribal and non-tribal forest users, and other key stakeholders to analyze the social and ecological consequences of the timberland ownership transition. These same stakeholders will be included in participatory workshops to assess possible trajectories of these forestlands under different climate and policy scenarios. Ecological analyses and future scenarios will be conducted using spatial science tools that have previously been applied to family forest dynamics elsewhere in New England. The result of this project will be a better understanding of the social and ecological consequences of the timberland ownership transition and the engagement of key stakeholders in assessing the future of these lands.This project is the first major effort to analyze financialized timberlands as integrated socio-environmental systems. The research focuses on financialized timberlands, defined as those owned and managed by financial investors such as the timber investment management organizations (TIMOs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that collectively own and manage over 20 million hectares of forestland nationwide. Research efforts integrate qualitative social science, remote sensing-based land change detection, and participatory scenario simulation modeling methods that collectively illuminate the feedback and causal relationships driving timberland system dynamics. Spatial and causal process models representing the consequences of three decades of forest financialization will be developed, then used to co-design future landscape scenarios for collaborative evaluation by key stakeholders. The research builds upon advances in land detection technologies via application of the LandTrendr tool to landscapes that have undergone ownership transitions. It also builds upon scenario modeling tools developed by Harvard Forest that have previously been applied to family-owned forested landscapes in New England and to other forest systems worldwide. The social science component includes a multi-scalar data collection process to inform construction of a causal process model that integrates ecological and sociopolitical variables. By investigating the relationships among human actors (financial firm executives, mid-level governance actors, and tribal and non-tribal forest users) and environmental patterns and processes (forest conditions, disturbances, species distributions, and carbon balances), this research will advance land system science and identify leverage points for effecting systemic change. Research efforts will focus on timberlands in Maine in order to build both place-specific and more generalizable models. The research will provide combined spatial and socioeconomic insights to inform policy and practice deliberations regarding the future ownership and management of these lands.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究探讨了缅因州北部森林过去的社会环境动态和未来的发展轨迹。在二十世纪的大部分时间里，缅因州北部的林地由综合性森林产品公司拥有，但最近，由于出现了新的公司林地组织，主要是房地产投资信托基金(REITs)和木材投资管理组织(TMOS)，它们的所有权发生了变化。这一所有权变化发生的同时，森林正被作为碳解决方案纳入州级气候政策。该项目的研究人员将直接与缅因州的政策制定者、部落和非部落森林使用者以及其他关键利益攸关方合作，分析林地所有权转变的社会和生态后果。这些利益攸关方将参加参与性研讨会，以评估这些林地在不同气候和政策情景下的可能轨迹。生态分析和未来情景将使用空间科学工具进行，这些工具以前已应用于新英格兰其他地方的家庭森林动态。该项目的结果将是更好地了解林地所有权转移的社会和生态后果，以及主要利益攸关方参与评估这些土地的未来。该项目是将金融化的林地作为综合社会环境系统进行分析的第一个重大努力。这项研究的重点是金融化的林地，即由金融投资者拥有和管理的林地，如木材投资管理组织(TIMOS)和房地产投资信托基金(REITs)，这些机构在全国范围内共同拥有和管理超过2000万公顷的林地。研究工作结合了定性社会科学、基于遥感的土地变化检测和参与式情景模拟建模方法，共同阐明了驱动林地系统动态的反馈和因果关系。将开发代表森林金融化三十年后果的空间和因果过程模型，然后用于共同设计未来景观情景，供主要利益攸关方进行协作评估。这项研究以土地探测技术的进步为基础，通过将LandTrendr工具应用于经历了所有权转换的景观。它还建立在哈佛森林开发的情景建模工具的基础上，这些工具以前曾应用于新英格兰的家庭所有的森林景观和世界各地的其他森林系统。社会科学部分包括一个多标量数据收集过程，以便为构建一个综合了生态和社会政治变量的因果过程模型提供信息。通过调查人类行为者(金融公司高管、中层治理行为者、部落和非部落森林使用者)与环境模式和过程(森林状况、干扰、物种分布和碳平衡)之间的关系，这项研究将推动土地系统科学的发展，并确定影响系统变化的杠杆。研究工作将集中在缅因州的林地，以建立特定地点和更具普遍性的模型。这项研究将提供空间和社会经济相结合的见解，为有关这些土地未来所有权和管理的政策和实践审议提供信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Not-so-random forests: Comparing voting and decision tree ensembles for characterizing partial harvest events

非随机森林：比较投票和决策树集合以表征部分收获事件

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2023.103561
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
• 影响因子: 7.5
• 作者: Pasquarella, Valerie J.;Morreale, Luca L.;Brown, Christopher F.;Kilbride, John B.;Thompson, Jonathan R.
• 通讯作者: Thompson, Jonathan R.