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Spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion and spatial variability of geological characteristics in seismic hazard and risk assessment

地震危险性和风险评估中地震地面运动的空间相关性和地质特征的空间变异性

基本信息

批准号：
184609456
负责人：
Professor Dr. Friedemann Wenzel
金额：
--
依托单位：
Geophysikalisches Institut (GPI)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2009-12-31 至 2012-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/184609456?language=en
关键词：
Spatial correlation earthquake ground motion

项目摘要

In seismic loss estimation for distributed portfolios and spatially distributed systems (lifelines), the average expected loss and the distribution of loss around the mean are very important for decision making and mitigation activities. Whereas the mean loss is determined by the sum of individual losses, the variance of loss depends on the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion. Standard hazard assessment and standard ground motion prediction cannot deal with correlation. Derivation of correlation properties of ground motion from observed strong motion data is only possible in very few locations as very high data density is mandatory. The objective of the project is the development of a methodology for earthquake ground motion prediction and its spatial correlation for seismic hazard and seismic loss assessment by introducing a model, which relates spatial correlation of ground motion with spatial variation of geology. Specific item are: 1. Identification of factors relevant for spatial correlation of ground motion using the databases accumulated in Japan and Taiwan and modern ground-motion prediction equations; analysis of spatial variability of geotechnical and geological characteristics using traditional geostatistical technique and advanced copula methods; 2. Establishing of quantitative relationships between parameters of spatial correlation of ground motion and characteristics of spatial variability of geology; development of model(s) that predict correlation properties from geostatistical data of regions; 3. Demonstration of relevance of correlated ground motion for hazard assessment, loss estimation, ground motion modeling and Shakemap generation in areas with a lack of ground motion data and information about correlation structure. The innovation by this project is twofold: (1) We do not know of any systematic work to link correlation of ground motion and variability of geology. (2) Copulas used widely in insurance and financial modeling may prove a powerful tool for earthquake engineering as well.

在分布式地震资产组合和空间分布系统（生命线）的地震损失估计中，平均预期损失和损失在平均值附近的分布对于决策和减灾活动非常重要。而平均损失是由单个损失的总和，损失的方差取决于地震地面运动的空间相关性。标准的危险性评估和标准的地震动预测不能处理相关性。从观测到的强震数据中推导出地面运动的相关特性只可能在极少数地点进行，因为数据密度必须非常高。该项目的目标是通过引入一个模型，将地面运动的空间相关性与地质的空间变化联系起来，为地震危险和地震损失评估制定一种地震地面运动预测及其空间相关性的方法。具体项目有：1. 利用日本和台湾地区积累的地震动数据库和现代地震动预测方程识别与地震动空间相关性相关的因素;利用传统的地质统计学方法和先进的copula方法分析岩土和地质特征的空间变异性; 2. 建立地震动空间相关性参数与地质空间变异性特征之间的定量关系;开发从区域地质统计数据预测相关性的模型; 3. 在缺乏地面运动数据和相关结构信息的地区，证明相关地面运动对于灾害评估、损失估计、地面运动建模和地震图生成的相关性。本课题的创新之处在于：（1）我们不知道有任何系统的工作将地震动的相关性与地质的变异性联系起来。(2)在保险和金融建模中广泛使用的Copula也可能被证明是地震工程的有力工具。