Multiple-site seismic hazard assessment

多地点地震危险性评估

• 批准号: 232139848
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Friedemann Wenzel
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Geophysikalisches Institut (GPI)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2012-12-31 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/232139848?language=en
• 关键词: Multiple; site; seismic; hazard; assessment

The classical point wise Cornell-McGuire probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which is widely used for seismic hazard mapping and development of design codes, does not allow direct estimation of multiple-location hazard for distributed structures and facilities: what is the (annual) probability that specific level of ground motion will be exceeded simultaneously in several sites? It is possible to extent the classical methodology to the multiple sites problem considering also ground-motion correlation. We study multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulation. Specific items are:(1) Development of the algorithms for multiple-location PSHA;(2) Analysis of the role of the geometry of multiple sites, correlation of ground motion, and evel of seimicity for multiple-location PSHA;(3) Study of correspondence and differences between multiple-location PSHA and classical point wise PSHA and analysis of possibility of utilization of classical PSHA procedures for simplified multiple-location hazard assessment.The project is innovative because only few attempts have been made so far regarding our research questions.

经典的点式Cornell-McGuire概率地震危险性评估（PSHA），这是广泛用于地震危险性映射和设计规范的发展，不允许直接估计多个位置的危险分布的结构和设施：什么是（每年）的概率，特定水平的地面运动将被超过同时在几个网站？它是可能的，以延长经典的方法，多个网站的问题，也考虑地面运动的相关性。我们研究了多位置PSHA，与经典的逐点PSHA相比，使用Monte Carlo模拟。具体内容包括：（1）多点PSHA算法的发展，（2）多点几何形状、地震动相关性和地震活动度对多点PSHA的作用分析;（3）研究了多点PSHA与经典点PSHA的对应关系和区别，分析了经典PSHA用于简化多点PSHA的可能性，位置危险评估。该项目是创新的，因为只有很少的尝试已经就我们的研究问题到目前为止。

项目成果

Seismic hazard from instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes: Application to the Tibet–Himalayan region

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2015.07.004
• 发表时间: 2015-08
• 期刊: Tectonophysics
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: V. Sokolov;A. Ismail-Zadeh

On the relation between point-wise and multiple-location probabilistic seismic hazard assessments

• DOI: 10.1007/s10518-014-9661-6
• 发表时间: 2015-05-01
• 期刊: BULLETIN OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Sokolov, Vladimir;Wenzel, Friedemann
• 通讯作者: Wenzel, Friedemann