Doctoral Dissertation Research: Strategic Learning After Election Reform: A Multiple Methods Approach

博士论文研究：选举改革后的战略学习：多种方法

• 批准号: 0752659
• 负责人: Michael Lewis-Beck
• 金额: $ 1.13万
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-03-15 至 2009-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0752659&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Strategic; Learning

Following the collapse of communism, rulers in Eastern Europe and the former USSR changed the rules governing elections as one of many political reforms in the transition to democracy. These political leaders implemented the rules with particular expectations as to how voters would respond to the new election environment. However, the effect of reform on the political system led to unexpected outcomes, handing electoral defeat of many leaders from the old regime. Scholars have developed explanations for when, why, and how election reform occurs, but this research generally focuses on the role of political leaders in the process and overlooks the reaction of voters to the new voting arrangements. It is difficult to capture voter reactions to new election environments due to the high level of uncertainty the reform introduces to the political system. This project will demonstrate how voters respond to new election rules through the development of a theory of voter learning. The theory will be tested using a multiple methods approach. The first part of the project will conduct a computer laboratory experiment with populations from universities in three countries with different election reform histories: France, Germany, and Hungary. The experimental design is a fictitious election environment populated with five candidates contesting an election, and the treatment is exposure to voting rules found in either the United States or France. After a series of elections, the "shock" of a new election rule is introduced to the voters, and the subsequent behavior of the voters is captured. The second part of the project will use standard statistical techniques to analyze real-world data in the form of post-election surveys from the years prior to and following election reform in France, Germany and Hungary.This project will provide several scientific advancements. First, it develops an interdisciplinary theory of learning that bridges research in behavioral economics with the expectations from political science in regards to voter behavior and elections. Second, the project tests the theory by using a combination of experimental techniques and survey data. The combination of both experimental and non-experimental methods allows for greater insight into the findings and conclusions than would be possible using only one method. Third, the project will advance scientific knowledge by the provision to the public of the experimental protocol, software coding instructions, surveys, and both the experiment and non-experimental data on a website maintained by the researcher. Finally, this project will have important public policy ramifications, especially with reality of political leaders in both new and old democracies manipulating election rules. The conclusions of this project will advance the understanding of what happens to voters following a change in their experience at the ballot box. The information gathered from such research will better inform political elites as to the consequences of tampering with voting arrangements. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

随着共产主义的崩溃，东欧和前苏联的统治者改变了选举规则，作为向民主过渡的许多政治改革之一。 这些政治领导人在执行规则时特别期望选民如何应对新的选举环境。然而，改革对政治制度的影响导致了意想不到的结果，许多旧政权的领导人在选举中失败。 学者们已经对选举改革何时、为何以及如何发生做出了解释，但这种研究通常集中在政治领导人在这一过程中的作用上，而忽视了选民对新投票安排的反应。 由于改革给政治制度带来的高度不确定性，很难捕捉选民对新选举环境的反应。 这个项目将通过发展选民学习理论来展示选民如何对新的选举规则作出反应。 该理论将使用多种方法进行测试。 该项目的第一部分将在法国、德国和匈牙利三个具有不同选举改革历史的国家的大学进行计算机实验室实验。 实验设计是一个虚构的选举环境，其中有五名候选人参加选举，处理方法是暴露于美国或法国的投票规则。 在一系列的选举之后，一个新的选举规则的“冲击”被引入选民，并捕捉到选民的后续行为。 该项目的第二部分将使用标准统计技术，以选举后调查的形式分析法国、德国和匈牙利选举改革前后几年的真实世界数据，该项目将取得若干科学进展。 首先，它发展了一种跨学科的学习理论，将行为经济学的研究与政治科学对选民行为和选举的期望联系起来。 第二，本项目通过使用实验技术和调查数据相结合的方式对理论进行了检验。 实验和非实验方法相结合，可以更深入地了解结果和结论，而不是只使用一种方法。 第三，该项目将通过向公众提供实验协议，软件编码说明，调查以及研究人员维护的网站上的实验和非实验数据来推进科学知识。 最后，这个项目将产生重要的公共政策影响，特别是在新旧民主国家的政治领导人操纵选举规则的现实中。 该项目的结论将促进了解选民在投票箱经历改变后会发生什么。 从这种研究中收集的信息将更好地告知政治精英，使他们了解篡改投票安排的后果。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立的研究生涯。