Doctoral Dissertation Research: Strategic Learning After Election Reform: A Multiple Methods Approach

共产主义解体后，东欧和前苏联的尺子改变了选举规则，作为向民主过渡的许多政治改革之一。这些政治领导人对选民将如何应对新的选举环境怀着特别的期望执行这些规则。然而，改革对政治制度的影响导致了意想不到的结果，导致旧政权的许多领导人在选举中落败。学者们对选举改革发生的时间、原因和方式做出了解释，但这项研究通常侧重于政治领导人在这一过程中的作用，而忽略了选民对新的投票安排的反应。由于改革给政治制度带来了高度的不确定性，很难捕捉选民对新选举环境的反应。本项目将通过发展选民学习理论，展示选民如何对新的选举规则作出反应。这一理论将使用多种方法进行检验。该项目的第一部分将对三个选举改革历史不同的国家的大学人口进行计算机实验室实验：法国、德国和匈牙利。实验设计是一个虚拟的选举环境，里面有五名候选人参加选举，待遇是接触到美国或法国的投票规则。在经历了一系列选举之后，一项选举新规被介绍给选民，并捕捉到选民随后的行为。该项目的第二部分将使用标准的统计技术，以选举后调查的形式分析法国、德国和匈牙利选举改革前后的真实世界数据。该项目将提供几个科学进步。首先，它发展了一种跨学科的学习理论，将行为经济学的研究与政治学对选民行为和选举的期望联系起来。其次，该项目使用实验技术和调查数据相结合的方法来检验该理论。与仅使用一种方法相比，实验方法和非实验方法的结合可以更好地洞察发现和结论。第三，该项目将通过在研究人员维护的网站上向公众提供实验方案、软件编码说明、调查以及实验和非实验数据来促进科学知识。最后，该项目将产生重要的公共政策影响，特别是在新旧民主国家的政治领导人操纵选举规则的现实情况下。这个项目的结论将促进人们对选民在投票箱中经历的变化后会发生什么的理解。从这类研究中收集的信息将更好地让政治精英们了解篡改投票安排的后果。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

Following the collapse of communism, rulers in Eastern Europe and the former USSR changed the rules governing elections as one of many political reforms in the transition to democracy. These political leaders implemented the rules with particular expectations as to how voters would respond to the new election environment. However, the effect of reform on the political system led to unexpected outcomes, handing electoral defeat of many leaders from the old regime. Scholars have developed explanations for when, why, and how election reform occurs, but this research generally focuses on the role of political leaders in the process and overlooks the reaction of voters to the new voting arrangements. It is difficult to capture voter reactions to new election environments due to the high level of uncertainty the reform introduces to the political system. This project will demonstrate how voters respond to new election rules through the development of a theory of voter learning. The theory will be tested using a multiple methods approach. The first part of the project will conduct a computer laboratory experiment with populations from universities in three countries with different election reform histories: France, Germany, and Hungary. The experimental design is a fictitious election environment populated with five candidates contesting an election, and the treatment is exposure to voting rules found in either the United States or France. After a series of elections, the "shock" of a new election rule is introduced to the voters, and the subsequent behavior of the voters is captured. The second part of the project will use standard statistical techniques to analyze real-world data in the form of post-election surveys from the years prior to and following election reform in France, Germany and Hungary.This project will provide several scientific advancements. First, it develops an interdisciplinary theory of learning that bridges research in behavioral economics with the expectations from political science in regards to voter behavior and elections. Second, the project tests the theory by using a combination of experimental techniques and survey data. The combination of both experimental and non-experimental methods allows for greater insight into the findings and conclusions than would be possible using only one method. Third, the project will advance scientific knowledge by the provision to the public of the experimental protocol, software coding instructions, surveys, and both the experiment and non-experimental data on a website maintained by the researcher. Finally, this project will have important public policy ramifications, especially with reality of political leaders in both new and old democracies manipulating election rules. The conclusions of this project will advance the understanding of what happens to voters following a change in their experience at the ballot box. The information gathered from such research will better inform political elites as to the consequences of tampering with voting arrangements. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.