Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities

劳动力供给的行为对经济学中的许多问题的分析至关重要，包括税收和转移项目对分配和福利的影响，以及商业周期。对于总量问题的分析，总劳动力供给的弹性是一个关键参数。多年来，对于这种弹性的大小一直存在很大争议。一方面，来自微观数据的估计往往产生较小的弹性，而来自总体数据的估计往往表明更大的弹性。由于这种弹性在如此多的背景下发挥着关键作用，这种明显的不一致对于获得对一系列政策的可靠评估，或者预测经济如何应对各种冲击是非常有问题的。这个项目试图通过明确考虑包含看似合理的技术特征的模型来解决这种明显的不一致，在这些模型中，人们既可以有意义地重建标准的微观估计工作，又可以考虑总体变化对经济的影响。初步工作表明，不同的弹性估计可以在这样的模型内协调。劳动力市场的结果对大多数人享有的生活水平有很大的直接影响。了解影响劳动力市场结果的因素，评估各种政策和机构的福利成本，将使政策制定者做出更好的决策，并带来更好的经济结果。这项工作为总体经济政策评估提供了更好的基础。

The behavior of labor supply is critical for the analysis of many issues in economics, including the effects of tax and transfer programs on allocations and welfare, and business cycles. For the analysis of aggregate issues, the elasticity of aggregate labor supply is a critical parameter. For many years there has been substantial controversy over the magnitude of this elasticity. On the one hand, estimates from micro data have tended to yield small elasticities, while estimates from aggregate data often suggest much larger elasticities. Because this elasticity plays a key role in so many contexts, this apparent inconsistency is very problematic for obtaining reliable assessments for a wide range of policies, or for predicting how the economy responds to various shocks. This project seeks to resolve this apparent inconsistency by explicitly considering models that incorporate plausible technological features and in which one can both meaningfully recreate the standard micro estimation exercises and also consider the effects of aggregate changes to the economy. Preliminary work suggests that the disparate elasticity estimates can be reconciled within such a model.Labor market outcomes have large and direct effects on the standard of living enjoyed by most individuals. Understanding what factors shape labor market outcomes and assessing the welfare costs of various policies and institutions will allow policy makers to make better decisions and led to better economic outcomes. This work provides a better foundation for aggregate economic policy evaluation.