SGER: Cyclones, Cones, and Confusion: A Study of Visual Communication

美国人口普查局估计，有3490万美国人生活在东海岸的飓风易发地区。随着美国经历了热带气旋活动加剧的自然时期，再加上全球气候变化可能带来的影响，现在比以往任何时候都更需要有效地传播飓风警报和相关风险。此外，越来越多的人担心，决策者、应急管理人员和公众误解了关键飓风路径预报的视觉显示，即所谓的“不确定锥”，这可能导致信息不充分的决策。尽管飓风预报和警报的准确性有所提高，但如果视觉风险传达无效，那么人们将无法理解它们。检查飓风预警系统的必要性导致了至少两份最近的报告：飓风预报和预警系统的社会科学研究需求，以及飓风预警：国家飓风研究倡议的迫切需要，这是由国家科学委员会飓风科学与工程特别工作组，项目和计划委员会撰写的报告。这项研究包括两个主要部分，都严重依赖于访谈，每个部分都有一个实时的观察之旅。首先，必须对图形的目的和创建有更好的理解。对预报员和其他飓风专家的采访将为他们认为公众应该理解的内容提供基础。此外，在美国可能遭受飓风威胁期间，访问国家飓风中心将提供实时观察如何制作图形并向公众传播。第二，尽管有经验证据表明公众对这幅图感到困惑，但还没有人收集到关于人们对这幅图的感知和理解的数据。与公众人士的访谈将有助于收集这些信息。这些信息将有助于比较预测者的意图和公众对图表的解释。这项研究有助于气象学和视觉传播的交叉。本研究将探索保持气象科学完整性的可能性，同时将视觉感知理论和公众观点结合起来，创造一个满足这两种需求的图形。

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 34.9 million Americans live in hurricane prone areas along the East Coast. With the U.S. experiencing a natural period of heightened tropical cyclone activity combining with the possible effects of global climate change, now more than ever is the time to communicate hurricane warnings and associated risks effectively. In addition, there is growing concern that decision makers, emergency managers, and the public are misinterpreting visual displays of critical hurricane track forecasts, called the "cone of uncertainty," which may lead to ill-informed decisions. Despite improved accuracy of hurricane forecasts and warnings, if the visual risk communication is ineffective, then people will not understand them. The necessity of examining hurricane warning systems has resulted in at least two recent reports: Social Science Research Needs for the Hurricane Forecast and Warning System, as well as Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative, a report written by the National Science Board Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering, Committee on Programs and Plans. This research includes two main parts, both relying heavily on interviews, and each having a real-time observation trip associated with it. First, there must be a better understanding of the purpose for and creation of the graphic. Interviews with forecasters and other hurricane specialists will provide the foundation for what they believe the public should understand. In addition, a visit to the National Hurricane Center during a possible hurricane threat to the US will provide real-time observation of how graphics are created and disseminated to the public. Second, despite empirical evidence suggesting public confusion regarding the graphic, no one has yet collected data on people's perception and understanding of the graphic. Interviews with members of the public will allow the development of such information. This information will enable comparison between the forecasters' intent and public interpretation of the graphic. This study contributes to the intersection of meteorology and visual communication. This study will explore the possibilities of maintaining the integrity of the meteorological science while integrating visual perception theories and public views with the long-term goal of creating a graphic that meets both needs.