Collaborative Research: Westerly Wind Burst Modulation by the Sea-Surface Temperature (SST): from Understanding to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Prediction

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Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) are associated with the onset of major El Nino events. They occur more frequently and energetically and extend farther eastward prior to and during significant El Nino events than in non-El Nino conditions. While these wind events were initially thought to be completely stochastic, more recent analyses indicate that their occurrence and characteristics are at least partially modulated by the large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST). Model studies show that this modulation affects the characteristics of El Ninos as compared to the case of purely stochastic WWBs.This project is divided into two parts. The first, more applied, component is the implementation of an empirical WWB parameterization into a state-of-the-art El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction model, in an effort to improve the skill of ENSO prediction and to assess the impact of parameterized WWBs on predictability. A previously developed empirical semi-stochastic observationally-motivated WWB model will be applied in the NCAR CCSM3.0 (National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0) coupled ocean-atmosphere model, and this model will be used as an ENSO prediction model. The mutual effects of the WWB model and the coupled ENSO model on each other will be studied, along with the effects of the WWBs on the ENSO simulation, on the predictability of ENSO, and on the spread of predictions in the model. The second part is an effort to understand the basic mechanisms of WWBs and the dynamics of their dependence on the large-scale SST field. A cloud-resolving atmospheric model capable of producing WWBs will be run in a near-global configuration using the diabatic acceleration and rescaling (DARE) approach. The DARE model will be supplemented with analyses of observed wind and outgoing longwave radiation and with several simple models. It is intended that this strategy will result in an understanding of how the SST controls WWBs and will expose the mechanisms for the initiation and termination of the convective activity that creates WWBs.The broader impacts of this project are in contributing to improved skill in predicting ENSO, with the resulting social and economic benefits. Two graduate students will be trained: one at Harvard and one at Miami.