Topics in Computer Experiments

计算机实验专题

• 批准号: 0806134
• 负责人: Thomas Santner
• 金额: $ 36万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University Research Foundation -DO NOT USE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-07-15 至 2012-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0806134&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Topics; Computer; Experiments

This project will study problems that occur in the design of computer and physical experiments and the analysis of their output. Physical experiments are the gold standard for measuring input-output relationships but these measurements that contain noise and possibly unrecognized sources of bias. Computer codes that model input-output relationships are used increasingly in place of, or in conjunction with, physical experiments because of they can provide decreased lead times in the engineering design of manufactured goods as well as for the assessment of designs in varying field-use conditions and varying conditions of fabrication. In general a deeper understanding of product and process performance can be made by using a combination of computer and physical experiments. However, computer codes provide a biased measurement of input-output relationships because of the inevitably inadequate physics or biology used in their development. This proposal will address the following problems that arise from the challenges sketched above. 1. To increase the computational efficiency of screening methodology for identifying the most important inputs to a computer code. 2. To develop methodology for estimating the upper (or lower) percentile of a computer code output with respect to the distributionof the field inputs. 3. To estimate the set of Pareto optimal input values for multivariate computer output and the corresponding Pareto Frontier of output vectors corresponding to the Pareto optimal inputs. 4. To develop statistical methodology for simultaneous determination of calibrationparameters and tuning inputs for computer models, including those with mixed quantitative and qualitative inputs.Experimental modeling using computer codes is increasingly prevalent in engineering, in biomechanics, in the physical sciences, in the life sciences, in economics, and other areas of natural science such as the assessment of climate change and cosmology. Over the past twenty years, the use of computer codes as experimental tools has become increasingly sophisticated due to the fact that the number of inputs to such codes has steadily increased as well as the level of detail embodied by the codes. Researchers can now vary both ``engineering'' inputs as well as inputs that describe the operating conditions in the model. In addition, more detailed mathematical models of the input-output relationship as well as more accurate numerical solution of these models often produce codes that require 5-24 hours for a single run. In addition, multiple codes are often used to describe different aspects of the phenomenon being studied. This project will study problems that occur in the design of experiments involving such computer codes including screening the important inputs to such codes to determine important inputs, the efficient use of code output for optimization and other problems, and the calibration of corresponding physical experiments to further improve their prediction accuracy.

本项目将研究计算机和物理实验设计及其输出分析中出现的问题。 物理实验是测量输入输出关系的黄金标准，但这些测量包含噪声和可能无法识别的偏差来源。 模拟输入-输出关系的计算机代码越来越多地用于代替物理实验或与物理实验结合使用，因为它们可以减少制成品工程设计的交付周期，以及在不同的现场使用条件和不同的制造条件下评估设计。一般来说，通过结合使用计算机和物理实验，可以更深入地了解产品和工艺性能。然而，计算机代码提供了一个有偏见的投入产出关系的测量，因为不可避免地不充分的物理或生物学在他们的发展。这项建议将解决上述挑战所产生的下列问题。1.为了提高筛选方法的计算效率，以识别计算机代码的最重要输入。2.开发一种方法，用于估计计算机代码输出相对于现场输入分布的上（或下）百分位数。3.估计多变量计算机输出的帕累托最优输入值集以及与帕累托最优输入对应的输出向量的帕累托边界。4.开发用于同时确定计算机模型的校准参数和调整输入的统计方法，包括具有混合定量和定性输入的计算机模型。使用计算机代码的实验建模在工程学、生物力学、物理科学、生命科学、经济学和自然科学的其他领域（如气候变化和宇宙学的评估）中越来越普遍。在过去的二十年中，使用计算机代码作为实验工具已经变得越来越复杂，这是由于这样的代码的输入数量已经稳步增加，以及代码所体现的详细程度。 研究人员现在可以改变“工程”输入以及描述模型中操作条件的输入。 此外，输入-输出关系的更详细的数学模型以及这些模型的更精确的数值解通常产生单次运行需要5-24小时的代码。 此外，多个代码通常用于描述所研究现象的不同方面。本项目将研究涉及此类计算机代码的实验设计中出现的问题，包括筛选此类代码的重要输入以确定重要输入，有效利用代码输出进行优化等问题，以及校准相应的物理实验以进一步提高其预测精度。