Collaborative Research: Linkage of Bacterial Pathogens to Human infectious Disease in an Estuary Subjected to Extreme Climatic Events

在这个项目中，北卡罗来纳大学两个校区(教堂山和夏洛特)的研究人员将继续他们的研究，重点是表征、量化和模拟水传播病原体、极端气候事件、对营养物质/沉积物输送和浮游植物水华的影响，以及受人类活动影响的纽兹河河口(NRE)传染病的爆发。在之前和目前NSF的支持下，该团队利用跨学科方法来检查富营养化与病原体命运和运输之间的潜在联系，包括对病原体的再动员和颗粒附着的研究，以及基于正常气候条件的数据对病原体和人类健康进行建模。到目前为止的工作已经证明了极端气候(风暴)事件对上述过程的巨大影响。因此，随着这一更新资金的增加，研究小组将增加对这些事件(风暴和干旱)的关注，这些事件在过去十年中急剧增加，并将检验一个双管齐下的假说，该假说将自生(本地)和异地(从含有粪便污染的径流)异养病原体的生长、运输、生存和矢量化与这个关键河口系统中复杂的生物和物理过程联系起来。研究将评估过程一级的联系(即气候干扰、颗粒附着、河口运输、病原体向沿海社区的传播)，这些联系在径流污染水域引起人类疾病的原因中发挥核心作用，并受制于有利于本地细菌病原体扩散的环境条件。该项目将综合：1)基线和极端事件监测，使用先进的现场采样方法，2)有针对性的基于过程的研究，3)人类健康和病原体数据(包括将河口病原体和人类疾病分离株联系起来的新方法)，以及4)河口系统的三维机械模型和人体健康模型。结果将提供一个机制/解释性建模框架，阐明NRE中病原体命运的原因、控制、命运和环境控制，以及随后对人类健康的风险；所有这些都受到可能伴随全球气候变化的极端事件增加的影响。水文、水质和人类健康模型将提高对不同河口系统中病原体动态的了解，并产生工具，使社会能够应对和管理在极端气候事件期间重新动员和/或集中的病原体对人类健康的威胁。在更广泛的影响方面，这项研究将产生一个计算模型和一个独特的系统，用于收集和分析与人类人口对极端气候事件后河口病原体增加的反应有关的环境、生态和人类健康数据；所有这些都旨在保护公众免受通过河口传播的微生物疾病的影响。该项目将产生一个由研究科学家和公共卫生从业人员组成的网络，他们的工作是综合的，以确保各区域在极端气候事件发生时有能力对其作出反应。最后，该项目将继续在这一新的研究领域培训本科生和研究生，包括少数群体和妇女，创建一个将生态学、医学微生物学、公共卫生和流行病学、建模、地理、海洋学和水系统工程等领域汇集在一起的跨学科领域。

In this project, researchers at two campuses of the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill and Charlotte) will continue their research focused on characterizing, quantifying, and modeling links among waterborne pathogens, extreme climatic events, impacts on nutrient/sediment delivery and phytoplankton blooms, and outbreaks of infectious disease in the anthropogenically-influenced Neuse River Estuary (NRE). With prior and current NSF support, the team utilized an interdisciplinary approach to examine potential links between eutrophication and pathogen fate and transport, including research on remobilization and particle attachment of pathogens, and modeling of pathogens and human health based upon data from normal climatic conditions. Work to date has demonstrated he enormous impact of extreme climatic (storm) events on the abovementioned processes.Accordingly, with this renewal funding, the research team will increase its focus on these events (storms and droughts), which have increased dramatically in the past decade, and will test a two-pronged hypothesis that relates the growth, transport, survival, and vectoring of autochthonous (native) and allochthonous (from runoff containing fecal contamination) heterotrophic pathogens to complex biological and physical processes in this key estuarine system. Research will evaluate process-level (i.e., climatic disruption, particle attachment, estuarine transport, vectoring of pathogens to coastal communities) linkages that play central roles in the causation of human disease from runoff-contaminated waters and subject to environmental conditions favoring proliferation of native bacterial pathogens. The project will integrate; 1) baseline and extreme event monitoring, using advanced in situ sampling approaches, 2) targeted process-based studies, 3) human health and pathogen data (including novel approaches to link estuarine pathogens and human disease isolates), and 4) 3-D mechanistic and human health models of the estuarine system. Results will provide for a mechanistic/explanatory modeling framework that will elucidate causes, controls, fates, and environmental controls on pathogen fate in the NRE, and subsequent risk to human health; all impacted by increases in extreme events likely to accompany global climate change. Hydrologic, water quality, and human health models will improve knowledge of pathogen dynamics in diverse estuarine systems, and yield tools that will allow society to respond to and manage threats to human health from pathogens (re)mobilized and/or concentrated during extreme climatic events. In terms of Broader Impacts, this research will yield both a computational model of and a unique system for collection and analysis of environmental, ecological, and human health data related to the response of human populations to the increase in pathogens in estuaries following extreme climatic events; all directed towards protection of the public from microbial disease transmitted through estuaries. This project will produce a network of research scientists and public health practitioners whose work is integrated to ensure the ability of regions to respond to extreme climatic events as they unfold. Lastly, the project will continue to train undergraduate and graduate students, including minority groups and women, in this new field of study, creating an interdisciplinary area that brings together the fields of ecology, medical microbiology, public health and epidemiology, modeling, geography, oceanography, and water systems engineering.