Use of Regional Atmospheric Modeling to Improve Short and Long-term Forecasting Capability of the North American Monsoon System

利用区域大气模型提高北美季风系统的短期和长期预报能力

• 批准号: 0813656
• 负责人: Christopher Castro
• 金额: $ 37.49万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0813656&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Use; Regional; Atmospheric; Modeling; Improve

A regional atmospheric model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, will be used to improve short and long-term forecasting capability for the North American Monsoon System. This study is motivated, in part, by the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), which has the objectives of understanding and predicting warm season convective processes in complex terrain and determining the response of warm season precipitation to slowly varying oceanic and continental surface conditions. In addition, physical understanding of how the North American Monsoon may be affected by anthropogenic climate change is an urgent question in the water-scarce Southwest United States and northwestern Mexico. The scientific objectives of this project are: to explain the physical mechanisms which lead to monsoon rainfall and determine the sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to data specification; to assess the potential for improvement in seasonal climate prediction in North America for the warm season; and to assess the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change on the core monsoon region. These objectives will be addressed using WRF as a numerical weather prediction and regional climate model and, in the process, developing model applications, such as an adjoint modeling system and spectral nudging capability. Broader impacts are in the societal value of improved forecasts of the North American Monsoon and projections of how it may change in the future. This work will address the identified priorities of the weather and climate community and societal needs, as identified through collaborative links the PI maintains with these stakeholders. The research and teaching responsibilities of the PI will facilitate multidisciplinary interactions (including the development of a new hydrometeorology program) and cooperation with Mexico. The project will provide an example of Hispanic achievement and mentorship in the physical sciences.

将使用一个区域大气模式，即天气研究和预报(WRF)模式，以提高北美季风系统的短期和长期预报能力。这项研究部分是由北美季风实验(NAME)推动的，该实验的目的是了解和预测复杂地形中的暖季对流过程，并确定暖季降水对缓慢变化的海洋和大陆表面条件的响应。此外，在水资源稀缺的美国西南部和墨西哥西北部，从物理上了解北美季风可能如何受到人为气候变化的影响是一个紧迫的问题。该项目的科学目标是：解释导致季风降雨的物理机制，确定数值天气预报对数据说明的敏感性；评估北美暖季季节气候预报改进的潜力；以及评估人为气候变化对核心季风区的潜在影响。将利用世界气候框架作为数值天气预报和区域气候模式来解决这些目标，并在此过程中开发模式应用程序，例如伴随模式系统和光谱推送能力。更广泛的影响在于改进了对北美季风的预报和对其未来可能如何变化的预测的社会价值。这项工作将解决通过PI与这些利益攸关方保持的协作联系确定的天气和气候社区以及社会需求的优先事项。该研究所的研究和教学职责将促进多学科互动(包括开发一个新的水文气象学项目)以及与墨西哥的合作。该项目将提供西班牙裔在自然科学领域取得成就和指导的范例。