Use of Regional Atmospheric Modeling to Improve Short and Long-term Forecasting Capability of the North American Monsoon System

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A regional atmospheric model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, will be used to improve short and long-term forecasting capability for the North American Monsoon System. This study is motivated, in part, by the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), which has the objectives of understanding and predicting warm season convective processes in complex terrain and determining the response of warm season precipitation to slowly varying oceanic and continental surface conditions. In addition, physical understanding of how the North American Monsoon may be affected by anthropogenic climate change is an urgent question in the water-scarce Southwest United States and northwestern Mexico. The scientific objectives of this project are: to explain the physical mechanisms which lead to monsoon rainfall and determine the sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to data specification; to assess the potential for improvement in seasonal climate prediction in North America for the warm season; and to assess the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change on the core monsoon region. These objectives will be addressed using WRF as a numerical weather prediction and regional climate model and, in the process, developing model applications, such as an adjoint modeling system and spectral nudging capability. Broader impacts are in the societal value of improved forecasts of the North American Monsoon and projections of how it may change in the future. This work will address the identified priorities of the weather and climate community and societal needs, as identified through collaborative links the PI maintains with these stakeholders. The research and teaching responsibilities of the PI will facilitate multidisciplinary interactions (including the development of a new hydrometeorology program) and cooperation with Mexico. The project will provide an example of Hispanic achievement and mentorship in the physical sciences.