Use of Regional Atmospheric Modeling to Improve Short and Long-term Forecasting Capability of the North American Monsoon System

一个区域大气模式，即天气研究与预报（WRF）模式，将用于提高北美季风系统的短期和长期预报能力。这项研究的部分动机是北美季风实验（NAME），其目的是了解和预测复杂地形下暖季对流过程，并确定暖季降水对缓慢变化的海洋和大陆表面条件的响应。此外，在缺水的美国西南部和墨西哥西北部，对北美季风如何受到人为气候变化影响的物理理解是一个紧迫的问题。该项目的科学目标是：解释导致季风降雨的物理机制，确定数值天气预报对数据规范的敏感性；评估北美暖季季节气候预测的改进潜力；并评估人为气候变化对核心季风区的潜在影响。这些目标将通过使用WRF作为数值天气预报和区域气候模式来实现，并在此过程中开发模式应用，例如伴随建模系统和频谱推动能力。更广泛的影响体现在对北美季风预报的改进以及对其未来变化的预测的社会价值。这项工作将通过PI与这些利益相关者保持的合作联系，解决天气和气候社区和社会需求的确定优先事项。PI的研究和教学职责将促进多学科的互动（包括开发一个新的水文气象项目）以及与墨西哥的合作。该项目将提供一个西班牙裔在物理科学方面取得成就和获得指导的例子。

A regional atmospheric model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, will be used to improve short and long-term forecasting capability for the North American Monsoon System. This study is motivated, in part, by the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), which has the objectives of understanding and predicting warm season convective processes in complex terrain and determining the response of warm season precipitation to slowly varying oceanic and continental surface conditions. In addition, physical understanding of how the North American Monsoon may be affected by anthropogenic climate change is an urgent question in the water-scarce Southwest United States and northwestern Mexico. The scientific objectives of this project are: to explain the physical mechanisms which lead to monsoon rainfall and determine the sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to data specification; to assess the potential for improvement in seasonal climate prediction in North America for the warm season; and to assess the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change on the core monsoon region. These objectives will be addressed using WRF as a numerical weather prediction and regional climate model and, in the process, developing model applications, such as an adjoint modeling system and spectral nudging capability. Broader impacts are in the societal value of improved forecasts of the North American Monsoon and projections of how it may change in the future. This work will address the identified priorities of the weather and climate community and societal needs, as identified through collaborative links the PI maintains with these stakeholders. The research and teaching responsibilities of the PI will facilitate multidisciplinary interactions (including the development of a new hydrometeorology program) and cooperation with Mexico. The project will provide an example of Hispanic achievement and mentorship in the physical sciences.