Modelling of targeted regional climate phenomena and diagnostics of atmospheric energetics

目标区域气候现象建模和大气能量学诊断

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-04208
• 负责人: Laprise, René
• 金额: $ 5.68万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=765314
• 关键词: Modelling; targeted; regional; climate; phenomena

The proposed research programme aims at furthering the understanding of the physical processes affecting regional climate, including the atmospheric dynamics and its natural variability, and the associated changes resulting from the anticipated global warming of anthropogenic origin. The research programme is articulated around two complementary lines of investigation: Detailed energetics analysis of storms in recent past and projected warmer world, and event-based very high resolution regional climate modelling.Along a first axis of research, innovative atmospheric energetic calculations will be performed on analyses of observations and high-resolution climate model historical simulations and future projections. Diagnostic energetic studies constitute complementary tools to climate modelling for probing the Earth's climate system and understanding the physical processes responsible for its maintenance, fluctuations and evolution under changing forcing. It is proposed to carry detailed atmospheric energetic budget over selected storm tracks, based on the novel approach of available enthalpy (AE) that, unlike the better-known available potential energy (APE) approach proposed by Lorenz, is applicable locally, and hence is suited for the study of individual storms. Confident in the robustness of the AE approach based on our recent work, we propose to carry detailed energetics of the life cycle of storms that have occurred in recent past and compare these with those that are projected for the future under anthropogenic warming. The second axis of research aims at designing an efficient simulation protocol to achieve regional climate projections of unprecedented high resolution, at an affordable computational cost on today's supercomputers. By carrying a cascade of telescoping grids in which the very high resolution is only activated for the events of the selected process under study, computing savings of one to two orders of magnitude will be achieved. The saving could then be reinvested in performing unprecedented detailed climate simulations on the current generation of supercomputers. These findings will pave the way for the next generation of Regional Climate Models with improved approaches for achieving very high-resolution climate simulations at an affordable computational cost.The results of this research programme will provide the scientific basis and technological framework for performing and interpreting high-resolution climate projections for the next decade. In turn these results will feed information-based decisions for the development of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of Canadians to anticipated regional impacts of anthropogenic global climate changes.

拟议的研究方案旨在加深对影响区域气候的物理过程的了解，包括大气动力学及其自然变异性，以及预期的人为全球变暖造成的相关变化。研究方案围绕两个相辅相成的研究方向展开：对最近过去和预计变暖世界的风暴进行详细的能量学分析，以及基于事件的甚高分辨率区域气候模式。作为研究的第一轴，创新的大气能量计算将在观测分析和高分辨率气候模式历史模拟和未来预测的基础上进行。诊断性能量研究是气候模拟的补充工具，用于探测地球气候系统并了解负责其维持、波动和在变化的强迫下的演变的物理过程。与Lorenz提出的更著名的可用势能(APE)方法不同，该方法适用于局部地区，因此适用于单个风暴的研究，建议在选定的风暴路径上进行详细的大气能量收支。基于我们最近的工作，我们对AE方法的稳健性充满信心，我们建议对最近发生的风暴的生命周期进行详细的能量学研究，并将这些与在人为变暖下对未来的预测进行比较。第二个研究轴旨在设计一种有效的模拟协议，在当今的超级计算机上以负担得起的计算成本实现前所未有的高分辨率区域气候预测。通过采用层叠的伸缩网格，其中只为所研究的选定过程的事件激活非常高的分辨率，将实现一到两个数量级的计算节省。省下的钱可以再投资于在当前一代超级计算机上执行前所未有的详细气候模拟。这些发现将为下一代区域气候模型铺平道路，这些模型将采用改进的方法，以负担得起的计算成本实现非常高分辨率的气候模拟。这一研究方案的结果将为执行和解释下一个十年的高分辨率气候预测提供科学基础和技术框架。反过来，这些成果将为制定适应措施提供基于信息的决策，以减少加拿大人对预期的人为全球气候变化区域影响的脆弱性。