Rapid Evolution and the Dynamics of Complex Ecological Communities

长期以来，生态过程和进化一直被视为发生在完全不同的时间尺度上，但过去30年的研究令人信服地表明，进化变化往往与生态动力学同时发生。像藻类、一年生植物、鸟类、鱼类、昆虫和绵羊等多种多样的物种，当它们的环境发生变化或入侵新的栖息地时，都会迅速发生进化变化。该项目将利用生态食物网模型的数学和统计研究，了解生态学和进化的耦合如何影响物种的时间动态及其在不断变化的环境中持续生存的能力，以及遗传变异性和快速进化反应能力的丧失如何影响生态系统的鲁棒性和稳定性。将开发基于估计平滑函数的技术的统计方法，以从观察性种群数据（如对收获或受威胁物种的持续监测）中推断进化动态。成为某人的晚餐，或复制病毒的工厂，是非常强大的自然选择。很难想象这些事情的发生没有直接的进化后果，但正是这种思想嵌入了现在支撑环境和自然资源管理的生态理论。因此，这项研究的影响是非常广泛的，包括资源管理，生物多样性保护，入侵物种管理，生态系统对环境变化的反应。更广泛的影响还包括培训研究生和一名博士后研究员，并利用与环境机构建立的联系，促进在保护规划和应对不断变化的环境时考虑进化动态。

Ecological processes and evolution have long been viewed as occurring on radically different time scales, but studies over the last three decades have compellingly shown that evolutionary change often occurs at the same time and pace as ecological dynamics. Species as diverse as algae, annual plants, birds, fishes, insects, and sheep have quickly undergone evolutionary changes when their environments change or when they invade a new habitat. This project will use mathematical and statistical studies of model ecological food webs to understand how the coupling of ecology and evolution affects the temporal dynamics of species and their ability to persist in ever-changing environments, and how loss of genetic variability and the capacity for rapid evolutionary response may affect the robustness and stability of ecological systems. Statistical methods based on techniques for estimating smooth functions will be developed to infer evolutionary dynamics from observational population data such as ongoing monitoring of harvested or threatened species. Becoming somebody's dinner, or the factory for replicating a virus, is very strong natural selection. It is hard to imagine these occurring without immediate evolutionary consequences, but exactly that thinking is embedded in the ecological theory now underpinning environmental and natural resource management. Implications of this research are therefore extremely broad, including resource management, biodiversity conservation, invasive species management, and ecosystem responses to environmental change. Broader impacts also include training graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher, and using established contacts with environmental agencies to promote consideration of evolutionary dynamics in conservation planning and response to changing environments.