Collaborative Research: GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis: End-to-end Energy Budgets in US-GLOBEC Regions

拟议的研究解决了一个首要问题：海洋食物网是自上而下控制渔业，还是自下而上控制，还是两者结合控制？为了解决这个问题，我们将(1)在自上而下与自下而上强迫的背景下比较4个US-GLOBEC研究区域的端到端能源预算；(2)评估区域模式在捕获基本物质通量方面的技能；(3)从区域模式中提取诊断结果，用于评估气候变化和捕鱼压力对GLOBEC区域的影响；(4)开发定量方法来比较诊断结果。全球生态系统的主要成功在于阐明了以不同自然环境为特征的生态系统中个别物种动态的基本过程。与此同时，越来越需要采用生态系统方法来管理受捕捞压力和气候变化影响的海洋资源。提高对海洋食物网营养联系的认识，对于理解和预测生态系统对气候变化和人为强迫的反应能力是不可或缺的。使用最先进的建模方法与数据组装和分析相结合，为培养研究生（3名包括在项目中）提供了机会，这些研究生需要在各种学科（食物网建模，数据分析，数据同化，海洋生态学）中解决海洋系统面临的重要科学和社会问题。该项目包括2名博士后科学家、多名女性（22名研究人员中有9名是女性）（其中包括几名主要负责人）、几名GLOBEC新加入的有才华的青年科学家和其他GLOBEC新加入的科学家，以及一支优秀的国际合作团队（见BAS的支持函）。来自学术界、政府和私营企业的科学家之间的合作努力对所有群体都有益。管理计划集中于通过面对面、数字和电子会议进行密集、频繁的沟通，这是该项目独特的、潜在的变革方面。

The proposed research addresses the overarching question: are marine food webs leading to fisheries controlled from the top-down, the bottom up, or a combination of the two? To address this question we will (1) compare end-to-end energy budgets of the 4 US-GLOBEC study regions in the context of top-down v. bottom-up forcing, (2) assess the skills of the regional models in capturing basic material fluxes, (3) extract diagnostics from the regional models that will be used to evaluate the effects of climate change and fishing pressure across GLOBEC regions and (4) develop quantitative methods to compare the diagnostics. The major successes of GLOBEC have been in elucidating the processes underlying the dynamics of individual species in ecosystems characterized by diverse physical settings. At the same time there is an increasing demand for an ecosystem approach to management of marine resources subject to fishing pressures and climatic changes. Improving the understanding of trophic links in oceanic food webs is integral to the ability to understand and predict ecosystem responses to climate change and anthropogenic forcings. The use of state-of-the-art modeling approaches coupled to data assembly and analyses provides opportunities to train graduate students (3 included in project) in a variety of disciplines (food web modeling, data analyses, data assimilation, marine ecology) that are needed to address the important scientific and societal problems facing marine systems. The project includes 2 postdoctoral scientists, many women (9 of 22 investigators) including several in lead roles, several talented young scientists new to GLOBEC, other scientists new to GLOBEC, and an outstanding team of international collaborators (see Letter of Support from BAS). The cooperative effort among scientists from academia, government, and private industry is beneficial to all groups. The management plan centered on intensive, frequent communication via in-person, digital and electronic meetings is a unique and potentially transformative aspect of the project.