Climate change as an agent of selection that alters fundamental interactions among a foundation tree species and its herbivore, mutualist and competitor communities

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Global climate is predicted to change dramatically in the 21st century with warmer temperatures and more extreme climate events expected over most land areas. The consequences of these changes may include shifts in the geographical range of animal and plant species, including many species of trees. Models developed to predict plant and animal response to climate change often do not consider the importance of genetic variation within members of a species or the interactions of that species with other organisms, which could slow or hasten distribution shifts. This study tests the hypothesis that the ultimate effect of climate change on a tree species and its associated community will result from the interplay between the responses of different tree genotypes to both climate stresses and to the herbivores, competitors and mutualists with which the trees interact. Specifically, this research examines the influence of genetic variation in resistance and susceptibility to insect herbivory on tree responses to drought as mediated by interactions with shrubs that compete with trees for water and soil fungi that enhance uptake of soil resources. The project involves population genetic analysis, and field, common garden and greenhouse studies of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis), a widespread tree particularly sensitive to climate change. The broader impacts of this project include student training with an emphasis on recruitment of underrepresented minorities, student exchanges between Mexican and US institutions, education of prisoners through the Arizona Department of Corrections and outreach to managers whose lands are dominated by pinyon pine suffering high mortality.