Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: When And Why Negative Campaigning Affects Voter Turnout

负面的竞选广告会使选民失去信心吗？这个问题的答案对于理解民主至关重要。如果负面的竞选广告阻碍公民投票，那么政治合法性就会受到质疑。这个项目展示了竞选消极性何时以及为什么会阻碍个人投票。更具体地说，该项目表明，负面广告只在特定条件下才能使选民复员，关于这一专题的现有工作产生了相互矛盾的结果。一些学者认为负面广告会使选民失去信心，而另一些学者则认为负面广告实际上会增加投票率，或者对投票率没有任何特别的影响。 这个项目认为，学者们已经达到了这种经验僵局，因为现有的研究忽略了两个关键的想法：一些人决定他们喜欢哪一个候选人之前很久选举日和负面信息有不同的效果之前和之后一个人决定如何投票。 这项研究结合了这两种观点，认为负面广告使选民失去了信心，但只是那些已经决定他们更喜欢哪个候选人的人。该项目使用一个实验来直接测试这一过程，并通过调查数据来证明七次选举的这种模式。 在更广泛的层面上，这项研究表明，在选举季节后期转为负面的竞选活动可能更有可能降低选民投票率。此外，我的工作为从业者提供了一个路线图。“走向负面”是竞选工作人员争论的一个话题，因为人们往往不清楚负面广告是否以及何时有助于候选人竞选公职。 这里进行的研究有助于处理这些不确定性，澄清负面竞选活动如何影响选民，哪些选民最容易受到负面影响。

Do negative campaign advertisements demobilize voters? The answer to this question is crucial to understanding democracy. If negative campaign advertisements discourage citizens from voting, then political legitimacy is in question. This project shows when and why campaign negativity can discourage individuals from voting. More specifically, the project demonstrates that negative advertisements demobilize voters only under specific conditions.Existing work on this topic has produced conflicting results. Some scholars claim that negative advertising demobilizes the electorate, while other scholars argue either that negative advertising actually increases turnout or does not have any particular effect on turnout. This project contends that scholars have reached this empirical stalemate because existing research ignores two critical ideas: some individuals decide which candidate they prefer long before Election Day and negative information has a different effect before and after a person decides how to vote. This study combines these two ideas to argue that negative advertising demobilizes voters, but only those who have decided which candidate they prefer. The project uses an experiment to test this process directly and survey data to demonstrate this pattern over seven elections. On a broader level, this study suggests that campaigns that turn negative late in the election season may be more likely to lower voter turnout. In addition, my work provides a roadmap for practitioners. "Going negative" is a topic debated among campaign staffers because it is often unclear if and when negative ads aid candidates in their quest for office. The research undertaken here helps deal with these uncertainties by clarifying how negative campaigning affects voters and which voters will be most susceptible to negativity.