Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight

政治学博士论文研究：冲突引起的流离失所，了解逃亡的原因

• 批准号: 0819494
• 负责人: Wendy Hansen
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: University of New Mexico
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-08-01 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0819494&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Unrest in places such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Iraq forces millions of people from their homes every year. The plight of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has become an increasingly discussed topic in academia as well as in the international community. Most literature on forced migration tends to conclude that displacement is an obvious consequence of conflict and people flee because they have no choice. However, this is an oversimplified conclusion. Many questions remain unanswered, such as why do some people stay behind and risk their lives while others flee? Little is known at the individual level about how those who choose to stay cope with conflict. Furthermore, only around a fraction of those who leave home ever return back. This raises yet other questions, such as why do some people not return home after they are displaced and under what conditions are they able to resettle into their new locations? The present research is motivated by puzzles such as these. Specifically, why do some people, even when faced with extreme violence, stay put and risk their lives while others flee? How do those who stay cope with the conflict and what choices do they make when life is at risk? Finally, what affects the choices of displaced persons to resettle in the place to which they migrated, return home, or remain in limbo in the aftermath of flight? A face-to-face public opinion survey of around 1500 randomly selected Nepali citizens will be conducted during the summer of 2008 to collect primary data and test a series of hypotheses to address the above questions. A multi-stage research design will be used to test a variety of hypotheses related to internal displacement. A logistic regression model will be used in the first part of the research to assess the significance of a number of factors beyond the threat to physical integrity of life, such as economic opportunity and physical infrastructure in explaining individual choice. The primary data collected at the individual level will be used to understand the factors that contribute the most to an individual?s decision to leave or stay put in the face of violent conflict. Conditioned on the choice to leave or stay, a variety of hypotheses regarding factors that lead to multiple possible outcomes for those who stay and those who leave will be tested in the second stage using conditional multinomial logit models. The present research will make a significant contribution to the ongoing effort to develop a theoretical foundation for understanding forced migration, and will have significant policy implications. Using primary data collected in Nepal, the present study will move from existing aggregate analyses to a micro-level analysis and provide a more nuanced test of the existing explanations of forced migration. The study will provide the first statistical analysis with primary data at the individual level with a focus on IDPs and the findings are expected to be sufficiently generalizable. The data will be made available to other researchers and will be a valuable contribution to the research community. The proposed research will also be important to policy makers in Nepal as well as the international community. It will shed light on the reasons behind people?s decisions to leave home and offer insights into the alternative mechanisms available for dealing with this problem, such as investment in creating economic opportunities, physical infrastructure and other coping alternatives.

阿富汗、苏丹和伊拉克等地的动乱每年迫使数百万人离开家园。国内流离失所者的困境已成为学术界和国际社会日益讨论的一个话题。大多数关于被迫移徙的文献往往得出这样的结论：流离失所是冲突的一个明显后果，人们逃离是因为他们别无选择。然而，这是一个过于简单化的结论。许多问题仍然没有答案，例如为什么有些人留下来冒着生命危险，而另一些人则逃离？在个人层面上，人们对那些选择留下来的人如何科普冲突知之甚少。此外，只有一小部分离开家的人会回来。这又提出了其他问题，例如为什么有些人在流离失所后不返回家园，在什么条件下他们能够在新的地点重新定居？本研究的动机是这些难题。具体而言，为什么有些人即使面临极端暴力，仍留在原地，冒着生命危险，而其他人则逃离？那些留下来的人如何科普冲突，当生命处于危险之中时，他们会做出什么选择？最后，是什么影响了流离失所者选择在他们迁移到的地方重新定居、返回家园，还是在逃离后继续处于不稳定状态？2008年夏季，将对随机挑选的大约1 500名尼泊尔公民进行面对面的民意调查，以收集原始数据，并检验一系列假设，以解决上述问题。将采用多阶段研究设计来检验与境内流离失所有关的各种假设。研究的第一部分将使用逻辑回归模型，以评估除了对生命的人身安全的威胁之外的一些因素的重要性，例如经济机会和有形基础设施，以解释个人的选择。在个人层面收集的主要数据将用于了解对个人影响最大的因素？在暴力冲突面前，我们决定离开还是留在原地。在选择离开或留下的条件下，将在第二阶段使用条件多项logit模型对导致留下和离开的人的多种可能结果的因素的各种假设进行测试。目前的研究将作出重大贡献，正在努力发展的理论基础，了解被迫移徙，并将有重大的政策影响。利用在尼泊尔收集的原始数据，本研究将从现有的总体分析转向微观分析，并对强迫移徙的现有解释进行更细致的检验。这项研究将提供个人一级的初步数据的第一次统计分析，重点是国内流离失所者，预计研究结果将具有充分的普遍性。这些数据将提供给其他研究人员，并将成为对研究界的宝贵贡献。拟议的研究对尼泊尔决策者和国际社会也很重要。它将揭示人们背后的原因？报告分析了妇女决定离开家园的情况，并对处理这一问题的替代机制提出了见解，如投资创造经济机会、有形基础设施和其他应对办法。