Doctoral Dissertation Research: Electoral Strategies and Poverty Programs

该项目调查了巴西东北部贫困计划的政治动机目标，重点关注农村城市的市长。 这一主题的立场之间的交集文学分配的政治是指挥中心的理论关注在政治学和研究贫困的政治在巴西东北部，巴西最贫穷的地区和世界上最不平等的地区之一。 一些学者认为，他们的目标是核心支持者，而另一些人则认为他们的目标是摇摆不定的选民。 该项目直接参与这一辩论，但也寻求一个新的研究议程，探讨动员如何影响惠益的目标。审查了四个问题。 为了影响已经参加选举的个人的投票选择，市长在分配利益时什么时候针对核心选民和摇摆选民？ 什么时候分配利益以吸引不参加选举的个人参加投票？ 针对目标商品的不同属性，目标定位策略有何不同？ 潜在的受益者是否认为利益是以政治支持和信任为条件的？ 通过对144名市政官员和农村穷人的深入访谈，回答了这些问题。 定量部分由其他来源供资，使用社会科学家尚未利用的巴西官方数据，除其他外，利用全球定位系统技术绘制了380 000多个选区的受益人地图。 对这些数据的计量经济学分析为理解分配政治和庇护主义提供了新的杠杆。 定性数据为定量测试提出假设，并不断检查定量结果的可信性，该项目加深了我们对减贫政治的理解。 它提供了关键信息，可以帮助决策者改善减贫方案，并吸引了更广泛的关注巴西及其他地区减贫的受众。

This project investigates the politically motivated targeting of poverty programs in Northeast Brazil, focusing on mayors in rural municipalities. This topic stands at the intersection between literature on distributive politics that is commanding central theoretical attention in political science and research on the politics of poverty in Northeast Brazil, the poorest area of Brazil and one of the most unequal regions of the world.A wide body of literature vigorously debates how politicians target distributive benefits such as particularistic goods and infrastructure projects. Some scholars argue that they target core supporters while others contend they target swing voters. This project directly engages this debate, but also pursues a new research agenda on how mobilization affects the targeting of benefits. Four questions are examined. When do mayors target core vs. swing voters as they allocate benefits, in order to influence the vote choices of individuals who already participate in elections? When are benefits distributed to induce the turnout of individuals who do not participate in elections? How do targeting strategies vary across different attributes of targetable goods? Do potential recipients believe that benefits are conditional on political support and trust? These questions are answered through the use of 144 in-depth interviews of both municipal officials and the rural poor. The quantitative component, funded from other sources, uses official Brazilian data that remains untapped by social scientists for which among other things Global Positioning System technology is employed to map beneficiaries in over 380,000 electoral precincts. The econometric analysis of these data provides new leverage in understanding both distributive politics and clientelism. The qualitative data suggests hypotheses for quantitative tests and provides an ongoing check for the plausibility of quantitative findings.This project deepens our udnerstanding of the politics of poverty reduction. It provides key information that can help policymakers improve poverty reduction program, and it engages a broader audience concerned with poverty reduction in Brazil and beyond.